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Episode 61: Market Development, Grains Innovation Fund
Thursday, October 12, 2017
Harvest 2017 prices as of the close, October 12 are as follows: SWW @ $183.52/MT ($4.99/bu), HRW @ $192.67/MT ($5.24/bu), HRS @ $238.89/MT ($6.50/bu), SRW @ $188.09/MT ($5.12/bu).
Monday, October 16, 2017
It is that time of year again when combines are rolling. However, uneven weather in parts of the American corn belt and Ontario has delayed harvest. There is nothing particularly unusual about this as we have it every year. US crops are huge coming off the fields and the market will certainly be making further adjustments. The final determinant on yield will come in the January USDA report. However, the October USDA report released October 12th helped to re-focus the trajectory of grain prices as we head into the end of the 2017.
In the October 12th report USDA increased US national corn yield to 171.8 bushels per acre, an increase of 1.9 bushels per acre over their September estimate. This put 2017/2018-corn production at 14.28 billion bushels on the high-end of pre-report estimates. The USDA also pegged corn-ending stocks at 2.34 billion bushels, which was up 5 million bushels from their September estimate. This number was a bit of a surprise especially with which dry weather throughout the American Midwest the summer.
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USDA estimated soybean production to be at 4.431 billion bushels, which was a decrease from their September estimate. This was based on a .4 bushel/acre cut in US national yield down to 49.5 bushels per acre. However, the US soybean harvested acreage is at a record high of 89.5 million acres, which was up 1% from the USDA September estimate. The US domestic soybean ending stocks were also pegged at 430 million bushels, which was down 45 million bushels from their September estimate. This was generally looked at as bullish on report day and soybeans responded by going up $.26 a bushel. US domestic wheat stocks were set at 960 million bushels, which was 27 million bushels higher than their September estimate.
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