Grain Market Commentary

Weekly commentary is written by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario.

All of these reports include a weekly Ontario Wheat Market Commentary for the current season. Ontario Corn and Soybean Commentaries are also included; reflecting the overall Grain Farmers of Ontario perspective.

Grain Market Commentary for April 26, 2017

April 26, 2017

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT July 3.67  03 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 9.56  05 cents
Wheat CBOT July 4.27  00 cents
Wheat Minn. July 5.50  05 cents
Wheat Kansas July 4.25  05 cents
Chicago Oats July 2.20  02 cents
Canadian $ June 0.7350  0.75 points

Corn

We are switching to the July corn contract for our analysis as Friday, April 28 which is the first notice day on the May contract. One concern that I see for corn is the persistent rainfall that seems to be lingering around the U.S. mid-west. Of course it is still early, but it is worth watching. Weather forecasts suggest the 10 day outlook calls for more rain and cooler temperatures. Support on the July contract is seen at $3.60 while overhead resistance is still at $4.

Short term indicators are negative and the main trend is still down.

Soybeans

We will be focusing on the July and November contracts for soybeans with regard to the technicals starting this week. The July contract seems to have found a temporary bottom at the $9.40 level for the time being. Failure to hold this support line on a close would suggest a re-test of the $9 level once again. Supply overhang is still a serious concern with South America’s bumper harvest numbers. Immediate overhead resistance is seen at the $10 mark on the July contract. Short term indicators are all negative and the main trend is still down.

Wheat

We received a positive indicator on Tuesday, April 25 suggesting at least a temporary bottom and it should be worth watching. With record short positions by hedge funds, this signal alone could be the start of a short covering rally which could catapult prices higher over the near term. This of course is not a signal to go long, but rather an indicator that this six-year bear market could be coming to an end this season. A second pattern that I’m watching is indicating a possible bottom in the wheat by early summer or earlier. This of course is just a pattern that is developing and has not completed its formation, but one that I will be watching closely. We will be looking for other signals in the coming weeks for more clues of a possible bottoming action. Support on the July contract is seen at $4.15 and again closer to the $4 mark. Our overhead resistance is now $4.40 - $4.50 also on the July contract.

Meanwhile, short term indicators are still negative and the primary trend is still down.

Harvest 2017 crop cash prices as of close on April 26, 2017
SWW @ $198.46/MT ($5.40/bu), HRW @ $198.46/MT ($5.40/bu),
HRS @ $238.45/MT ($6.49/bu), SRW @ $198.46/MT ($5.40/bu).

USDA Reports

The United States Department of Agriculture publishes monthly reports that may be of use to our members.

Report Updated
Crop production Monthly
World agricultural supply and demand estimates Monthly

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