Grain Market Commentary

Weekly commentary is written by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario.

All of these reports include a weekly Ontario Wheat Market Commentary for the current season. Ontario Corn and Soybean Commentaries are also included; reflecting the overall Grain Farmers of Ontario perspective.

Grain Market Commentary for May 24, 2017

May 24, 2017

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT July 3.71  01 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 9.48  18 cents
Wheat CBOT July 4.32  05 cents
Wheat Minn. July 5.61  20 cents
Wheat Kansas July 4.33  07 cents
Chicago Oats July 2.38  05 cents
Canadian $ June 0.7450  1.15 points

Corn

Sideways action has become the norm for the past year as the futures continue to trade between the $3.60 - $3.90 level as it has done since the summer of 2016. The main downtrend line still sits at $4 while the major support is seen at $3. Not exactly a promising long range outlook with regard to direction. Without sounding repetitious, we are currently locked into a $3.60 - $3.80 trading zone on the forward contracts and until we close above or below this area, we will probably continue to track sideways. Support on the July contract is seen at $3.60 while overhead resistance is still at $3.80 with major resistance at the $4 mark.

Short term indicators are neutral, but the main trend is still down.

Soybeans

Soybeans continue to trade in the $9.25 - $10 range and there is little fresh news. We did receive a red sell signal last week, as the indicators continue to show downward pressure on the July contract. For the time being, the new crop November chart is not quite as negative in appearance. Support is still seen at the $9.25 level. A close below these levels could suggest a move down to the $8.50 bottom established back in 2015.

Short term indicators are all negative and the main trend is still down.

Wheat

The charts on the wheat contracts, both Chicago and Minneapolis, are looking very constructive for the next couple of months. Based on the formation that I see, we are in an expanding wave that suggests a move higher during the month of June and possibly into harvest. Unseasonable weather could also still play a role in the futures price.

The short dated options expire Friday, May 26 and it is a long weekend in the U.S. This alone is enough to expect something unexpected in the price going into the week of May 29. Support on the July contract is seen at $4.15 and again closer to the $4 mark. Our overhead resistance is at $4.40 - $4.60, also on the July contract, while our major overhead trend line runs across the monthly chart around $5.

Meanwhile, short term indicators are still neutral, but the primary trend is down.

Harvest 2017 crop cash prices as of close on May 24, 2017
SWW @ $198.77/MT ($5.41/bu), HRW @ $198.77/MT ($5.41/bu),
HRS @ $227.86/MT ($6.20/bu), SRW @ $198.77/MT ($5.41/bu).

USDA Reports

The United States Department of Agriculture publishes monthly reports that may be of use to our members.

Report Updated
Crop production Monthly
World agricultural supply and demand estimates Monthly

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