Grain Market Commentary

Weekly commentary is written by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario.

All of these reports include a weekly Ontario Wheat Market Commentary for the current season. Ontario Corn and Soybean Commentaries are also included; reflecting the overall Grain Farmers of Ontario perspective.

Grain Market Commentary for September 20, 2017

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT December 3.50  01 cents
Soybeans CBOT November 9.70  11 cents
Wheat CBOT December 4.50  07 cents
Wheat Minn. December 6.22  12 cents
Wheat Kansas December 4.48  05 cents
Chicago Oats December 2.46  08 cents
Canadian $ December 0.8115  0.75 points

Corn

The $3.45 support level that we have identified on the December futures contract has been tested three times in the past three weeks. This leads me to believe that the bottom may be in for the next few weeks. This, of course, is a temporary line in the sand as the weekly charts show a move lower is very possible; we are still under a red sell signal from the August 25 commentary. For this reason, we have conflicting charts showing a possible temporary low at $3.45 and possibly an upcoming bounce in the short term. Our first resistance level is at the $3.60 and again at the $3.70 level on the December contract.

Short term indicators have turned positive, but weekly and monthly indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.

Soybeans

Soybeans have a unique pattern that I am reluctant to call. For those of you that read my commentaries on a regular basis, you may recall me speaking many times about a possible move towards the $8.50 level if we negate the $9 level on the nearby futures. Looking at both the daily and weekly charts, I have a formation that could be either a positive, suggesting a possible short bottom, or an inverted head and shoulders position showing a decline target to the $8.50 area that we have spoken about so often. We will not be able to identify the formation unless we see a move above $10 on the nearby contract or a move below $9 on the same contract. I will refrain from guessing the price direction, but will say for certainty that the primary trend is down and that we could still rally towards the $10 price without changing the chart formation.

Sticking more to what we know, the short term indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.

Wheat

Wheat continues to find solid support this week. We have inched higher by 20 cents per bushel since our last commentary when we suggested we are more than due for at least a 40 cent bounce from these levels over the next few weeks.

Support still sits at $4 - $4.20 on the December chart, while overhead resistance is viewed at $4.60 - $4.80. The slow, steady movement in prices is a good sign; but we need to keep in mind that the primary trend is down and these rallies should be viewed as selling opportunities for most farmers.

All indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.

Harvest 2017 prices as of the close, September 20 are as follows:
SWW @ $190.53/MT ($5.19/bu), HRW @ $199.60/MT ($5.43/bu),
HRS @ $241.11/MT ($6.56/bu), SRW @ $195.06/MT ($5.31/bu).

USDA Reports

The United States Department of Agriculture publishes monthly reports that may be of use to our members.

Report Updated
Crop production Monthly
World agricultural supply and demand estimates Monthly
sustainability
mobile apps