Grain Market Commentary

Weekly commentary is written by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario.

All of these reports include a weekly Ontario Wheat Market Commentary for the current season. Ontario Corn and Soybean Commentaries are also included; reflecting the overall Grain Farmers of Ontario perspective.

Grain Market Commentary for October 4, 2017

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT December 3.48  06 cents
Soybeans CBOT November 9.58  07 cents
Wheat CBOT December 4.42  17 cents
Wheat Minn. December 6.10  40 cents
Wheat Kansas December 4.36  22 cents
Chicago Oats December 2.46  02 cents
Canadian $ December 0.8015  0.15 points

Corn

Although the $3.45 support level that we identified on the December futures contract has been tested three times in the past three weeks, there is a very good possibility that prices may turn lower as we come into harvest. We are currently trading at $3.47, and there is room to slip lower, according to both the daily and weekly charts. If we close below the $3.45 level on the December contract, we will more than likely challenge the $3.30 initial support. We could possibly even take a shot at the $3 level before the harvest is complete.

Our first resistance level is at the $3.60 on the December contract.

Short term indicators have turned negative, and the primary trend is still down.

Soybeans

We have more of the same in soybeans as far as price action goes. The beans seem to be somewhat range-bound. It will be interesting to see the next full report as harvest goes on. The soybean contract for new crop November futures is currently trading at the $9.60 level, and the short term indicators are still negative. We could easily retest the all-important $9 level once again before the harvest is complete. If that level were to fail, I still maintain that a visit to the $8.50 level on the lead month is still possible. The primary trend is down, and we could still rally towards the $10 price without changing the chart formation.

The short term indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.

Wheat

Wheat continues to find solid support this week. We have inched higher by 20 cents per bushel since our $4.20 bottom, but more importantly we have received a red buy signal on the daily charts. This is encouraging, and it suggests that since we hit our first target of $4.60 last week, we could be ready to challenge the next resistance level of $4.80 on the December contract in the coming weeks.

Support still sits at $4.20 on the December chart, while overhead resistance is viewed at $4.70 - $4.80. The slow, steady movement in prices is a good sign, but we need to keep in mind that the primary trend is down, and these rallies should be viewed as selling opportunities for most farmers.

Short term indicators are now positive but the primary trend is still down.

Harvest 2017 prices as of the close, October 4 are as follows: SWW @ $188.93/MT ($5.14/bu), HRW @ $198.10/MT ($5.39/bu), HRS @ $238.91/MT ($6.50/bu), SRW @ $193.51/MT ($5.27/bu).

USDA Reports

The United States Department of Agriculture publishes monthly reports that may be of use to our members.

Report Updated
Crop production Monthly
World agricultural supply and demand estimates Monthly

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