Grain Market Commentary for June 13, 2018

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT July 3.76 ↓ 02 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 9.36 ↓ 58 cents
Wheat CBOT July 5.17 ↓ 03 cents
Wheat Minn. July 5.84 ↓ 13 cents
Wheat Kansas July 5.40 ↓ 01 cents
Chicago Oats July 2.32 ↓ 08 cents
Canadian $ June .7680 ↓ 0.41 points

Corn

The correction continued this week as we reached our downside target of $3.65 as suggested in last week’s commentary. The corn chart still looks weak and even if we bounce from these levels, there is a very good chance we will revisit them again in the coming weeks. This action has now given us a new overhead resistance for the short term. The $3.90 level on the July contract is the new resistance level and my guess is that we will move higher to that level before we re-test the recent lows of the $3.55 – $3.65 zone.

Our short term indicator is still bearish while our intermediate remains slightly bullish. All of this really doesn’t matter as long as the long term trend is still negative.

A definitive close above $4.50 will confirm the primary trend moving from neutral to bullish mode.

Current overhead resistance is still seen at the $3.90 – $4 level on July, while support is seen at the $3.55 – $3.65 level.

Soybeans

Soybeans were under attack and we did indeed dropped back to the $9.40 level as the July futures are testing the support level and an intermediate trend line. The charts are proving to be negative in the near term as we received a short term red sell signal on the re-test of the $9.40 trend line. This does not look promising as we may now see more selling which could move us back towards the 2017 lows near $9 and possibly even the long anticipated $8.50 lows of 2016.

Short term indicators are negative, while the intermediate trend, as indicated on the weekly chart, is neutral to bullish. The primary trend needs to see a close above the $10.80 level on the lead month futures contract to reverse the six-year-old bear market in soybeans. Until we have a convincing close above that level, the primary trend remains down.

Wheat

Our May 30 commentary suggested that the $5.55 area would result in stiff resistance and that we would pull back to the $4.80 – $5 level before another attempt at the $5.55 level.

We closed June 13 at $5.17 and it looks like we may see the $4.80 – $5. support level tested before we make another attempt at the $5.55.

Solid support is seen at $4.80  on the July contract and our resistance is the May 29 high at the $5.55 level. Once we clear that hurdle, we are set to challenge our $5.75 target.

Short term indicators are neutral while the primary trend is mildly bullish.

Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, June 13, 2018 are as follows:
SWW
@ $242.48/MT ($6.60/bu),  HRW @ $244.87/MT ($6.66/bu),
 HRS @ $232.91/MT ($6.34/bu),   SRW @ $241.42/MT ($6.57/bu).

 

Marty Hibbs is a grain merchandiser with Grain Farmers of Ontario. Hibbs is a 25 year veteran futures trader, analyst, and portfolio manager. He was a regular guest analyst on BNN for four years and is currently authoring the Market Side education series on futures trading basics in the Ontario Grain Farmer magazine.