Grain Market Commentary for May 30, 2018

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT July 3.93 ↓ 15 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 10.23 ↓ 15 cents
Wheat CBOT July 5.22 ↓ 10 cents
Wheat Minn. July 6.11 ↓ 31 cents
Wheat Kansas July 5.41 ↓ 11 cents
Chicago Oats July 2.39 ↓ 13 cents
Canadian $ June .7767 ↓ 0.21 points

Corn

Last week we called for resistance at the $4.10 – $4.15 level on the July corn futures, and after hitting $4.12, we back tracked to the $3.90 level as indicated to be initial support in last week’s commentary.

We may have seen the high for the next couple of weeks, as we did hit a significant level of resistance.  The next support on the July futures sits between $3.65 and $3.75, and if we manage to get that low, we should see another move back up to challenge the $4.12 top in the near future.

Both our short term and intermediate trend are still bullish while the primary trend, or long term trend, is still down. A definitive close above $4.50 will confirm the primary trend moving from neutral to bullish mode.

Current overhead resistance is still seen at the $4.10 – $4.15 level on July, while support is seen at the $3.90 – $4 level.

Soybeans

Soybeans continue more of the same with a confined range between the $10 level and the all-important $10.80 level on the July futures contract, as they have done since the first day of May.

The primary down-trend line is still at the $10.80 level. Short term indicators are neutral but the intermediate trend, as indicated on the weekly chart, is bullish as we await the challenge of the $10.80 level before confirming a trend reversal on our final holdout, the primary trend.  Until we have a convincing close above that level, the primary trend remains down.

Wheat

Wheat hit our initial overhead resistance of $5.55 on May 29 before succumbing to gravity. The charts showed a hook reversal pattern in the short term. The $5.55 – $5.75 resistance that we were expecting proved to be too much for the price action as we are possibly now headed back to the $5 support level on July before challenging the $5.55 level again.

This movement is normal in a coiling market, and I expect if we don’t  find solid support in the $5 price level on the July futures, we should definitely find it at the $4.80 level and set ourselves up again to challenge the $5.55 price point before the expiry of the July futures contract.

Solid support is seen at the $4.80 – $5 on the July contract and our resistance is the May 29 high at the $5.55 level. Once we clear that hurdle, we are set to challenge our $5.75 target.

Indicators are positive and the main primary trend is bullish.

Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, May 30, 2018 are as follows:
SWW
@ $242.27/MT ($6.59/bu),  HRW @ $244.64/MT ($6.66/bu),
 HRS @ $241.80/MT ($6.58/bu),   SRW @ $241.33MT ($6.57/bu).

Marty Hibbs is a grain merchandiser with Grain Farmers of Ontario. Hibbs is a 25 year veteran futures trader, analyst, and portfolio manager. He was a regular guest analyst on BNN for four years and is currently authoring the Market Side education series on futures trading basics in the Ontario Grain Farmer magazine.