Market Trends Report – August & September 2026

US and the World

It is that time of year again. In many ways August represents the time for the stretch drive in crop development as soybeans need moisture to set pods and corn needs some moisture to finish. It has been somewhat of an uneven year in many areas within the greater North American corn belt. There has been lots of dryness and heat as well as too much rain in some areas. However, as we head into late August it looks like the crop is a good one coming into September. On August 9th the USDA estimated the US corn crop at 61% good to excellent at full 11 percentage points below last year’s 72%. Soybeans were rated at 61% good to excellent, six percentage point below last year’s 68%. A little bit of benign weather going forward and we’ll be able to bring this crop home. The USDA came out with their latest WASDE report on Wednesday August the 12th.

Some of the biggest news from the USDA report had to do with an increase in planted acreage for both corn and soybeans. The USDA estimated an additional 1.4 million acres for both corn and soybeans. This boosted corn acres up to 96.7 million acres and increased production to 16.013 billion bushels. This happened despite a drop in yield by 2.3 bushels per acre at 180.7 bushels per acre. This put corn ending stocks for 2026 and 2027 projected at 1.653 billion bushels down from 1.79 billion bushels last month. If this yield potential is realized the US will have the second largest corn crop on record this year.

Soybeans got the additional 1.4 million acres which translates to 4.519 billion bushels using a trendline yield estimate of 52.7 bushels per acre. This is on planted acreage of 86.8 million acres with harvested acreage at 85.5 million acres. If this comes to fruition we will have the largest American soybean crop in history. New crop US ending stocks came in at 320 million bushels. Brazilian soybean production at 186 MMT and Argentina at 50 MMT. USDA estimated total US wheat production at 1.531 billion bushels a slight cut from the July report.

On Aug 14th corn, soybeans and wheat were lower than the last Market Trends report. September 2026 corn futures were at $4.59 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.83 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.92 bu. The Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.74 a bushel. The Minneapolis Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.78 a bushel with the July 2027 contract closing at $7.10 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of Aug 14th, 2026, closed at $82.40/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $89.31/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.23/gallon, higher vs the $2.19/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on August 14th, 2026, was .7207 US, higher vs the .7096 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

In Ontario any drought in the deep southwest was broken by early August and now as of August 14th soil moisture across the province has been exceptional to excessive in some areas. This is meant that crops are developing under ideal conditions without the drought stressors from July. Labour Day is still 3 weeks out and producers will be hoping for more benign ideal weather heading into early September. Crops could really benefit.

Wheat harvest is approximately 96% completed according to an estimate from the Grain Farmers of Ontario as of August the 13th. It was the tale of two halves as West of Toronto the harvest was pretty good with good quality during the dry period of late July. However, in eastern Ontario it has been a much tougher battle as rainy weather has led to downgrades and challenges in the field. A new pest called the orange wheat blossom midge has been identified in some Ontario wheat fields, which has led to some surprisingly lower wheat yields in some areas.

Basis levels for grains are lower than they were three weeks ago. To a large extent this has to do with the Canadian dollar up about a cent and a half in the last three weeks. For crops like soybeans and wheat in Ontario that always makes a huge effect on cash basis values, not so much for corn. As we head into September we’ll have to have a close watch on the corn basis with regard to any early market.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.75 to $2.04 over the September 2026 corn futures on Aug 14th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.65 to $1.94 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.82 to $4.20 over the November 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.50 to $3.75 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are in flux during harvest by as of Aug 14th are approximately $8.00. For July 2027 new crop the bid is in the $8.41/bu. range. On Aug 14th the US replacement price for corn was $6.98/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

The USDA did provide a bit of a surprise in August when they gave us a cut in yield but more acres. At the end of the day, we still expect the second largest corn crop in history and the largest soybean crop in history. The tone should be bearish, but it is not. Headlines for the moment are driving this market and with a 1.653-billion-bushel carryout for next year there is support underneath the corn complex.

The rally started previous to the USDA report when news came of the Ukrainians bombing the biggest Russian export grain facility in the Black Sea. At the same time the Russians are bombing Ukrainian port facilities. As per usual, in war truth is always the first casualty. However, these are not the headlines that grain trading algorithms want. There is just too much uncertainty to send prices for the moment south.

Usually, a lower crop yield estimate from USDA in August versus July means the crop is getting smaller. However, there has been very good rainfall across the American Midwest through August. In fact, rainfall has been so much in some areas that flooding is a concern. So, depending on crop ratings you could actually see an increase in yield predicted in the September report which will impact prices. In other words, weather still matters going into September and we could see a yield bump. It is not hot and dry, it’s cooler and more wet. That often can mean a supercharged yield for soybeans in the United States as well as in eastern Canada.

Keep in mind that despite our grain algorithms insatiable appetite for headline news, fundamentals still matter. The corn stocks/use ratio is at 10.1% which is quite low and combining this with a lower new crop carryout number of 1.653 billion bushels can only be seen as resilient for prices. This, even though it is the second largest corn crop on record. Demand is strong, very strong and it needs to be maintained.

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

We are looking at the second largest the corn crop in U.S. history with last year’s crop being the biggest. Intuitively, that just should mean lower prices, but demand has been very strong. There is even the possibility of Chinese buying in corn which would be an added dimension to this demand complex.

On August 13th the Rosario Grain Exchange and CONAB raise Argentina and Brazil corn production to a record 70.5 MMT and 143 MMT, respectively. That, coupled with the fact that Argentine corn is the world’s cheapest, adds to the big corn supply situation. The Argentine harvest has now advanced to 77% done. South American production should never be negated, and these big corn numbers are all part of the equation.

The September 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 24.5 cents lower than the December 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2026 corn futures contract is at the 22nd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

It is an old axiom that soybeans are made in August. So, despite some of the bullish talk coming from the corn and wheat complex, beans have caught some of that wave. However, it cannot be negated that these plentiful rains especially in the central and eastern part of the corn belt could easily boost the yield from 52.7 upward in the next USDA report.

In recent market action soybeans have been a bit of an onlooker to corn and wheat. However, there is still the specter of Chinese demand which has been very good for prices. They have been in the market buying approximately about 8 MMT of the 25 MMT committed to earlier. Expect more news of this especially with the upcoming visit of President Xi to the United States on September 24th.

The September 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 15 cents below the November contract considered bearish for old crop soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 29th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

The headlines in the wheat market which are driving algorithms are feeding from the news from the Black Sea where both Russian and Ukrainian grain export facilities have been compromised by war. In fact, in Ukraine they are looking to export about 30MMT of corn, wheat and other oil seeds to get ready for the upcoming corn harvest. That is creating a bottleneck affecting everything. Wheat prices are largely benefiting from these issues in that part of the world. It’s all very fluid it could stop very quickly or vice versa.

These problems in world markets have been a boon to Ontario wheat producers who saw wheat prices sore almost to $9 a bushel during harvest. This is approximately $3 more than a year ago. In fact, many producers have sold wheat $1.50 to $2.00 more than a year ago and it has mostly been based on the problems in the Black Sea with futures spiking. As per usual, a Canadian dollar fluttering in the 70 and 71 cent level US has boosted Ontario cash prices. With wheat futures spiking it has had an acceleration effect on upward price movement.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

The Canadian dollar simply matters especially for Ontario cash grain prices. On August 14th the noon rate for the loonie was 0.7207 US. This represented the third straight weekly gain for the currency. This is the highest it has reached since June 3rd when it was 72.12 US cents. Of course, this hasn’t been a monumental move, but the US dollar has been losing some momentum, and oil prices are helping depending on what’s happening in the Iran war. Needless to say, currency variations impact the demand for Ontario agricultural commodities and slight changes in this currency can cause 10 to $0.20/bu volatility in cash grain prices very quickly. That’s where standing orders for cash grain price levels can come in very helpful. As per usual, there is always another layer of marketing management considering both the value of the Canadian currency and grain futures prices.

We are moving into a time in September when we will have actual harvest results out of the United States and later on from Ontario. The USDA reducing the yield of the big US corn crop is significant and we will see as we go forward whether this is substantiated by actual harvest results. We will also have the September USDA come out and it will be significant what they say after the beneficial rains that we’ve seen in August. Intuitively, you would think that soybeans would add yield and maybe even corn. However, this is 2026 with continual mini–Black Swan events coming out of the Black Sea and other places. Volatility probably is our only certainty.

In Ontario we need to bring this crop home. Generally speaking, the crops do look good across Ontario even though some areas have had enough rain while others might have had too much. However, we don’t have the devastating drought in eastern Ontario which we had a year ago. This will affect cash markets going forward. Weather surely will also be a key factor in the next 4 weeks.

In those four weeks Ontario producers will need to continue to hone their grain marketing plans. Specifically, in front of harvest we need to recalculate the costs of storing grain and treat them as an opportunity cost. Just because the bins shine on days with a beautiful autumn sun, doesn’t necessarily mean they should be filled. There are choices to be made. Key is always good planning and daily market intelligence. Risk management never gets old. There will be many grain marketing opportunities ahead.