Market Trends Report – September & October 2026

US and the World

Harvest is on the horizon. On September 6th it was estimated that 5% of the corn had already been harvested in the United States. The USDA is estimating the American corn crop at 56% good to excellent with soybeans coming in at 58% good to excellent. So, we know how this works, given some good weather in September into October there will be an acceleration of crop progress and harvest progress. We are about to be in the eye of the storm. The growing season has been a bit uneven in the United States, but we are still looking at big crops in the offing. The USDA weighed in with their latest September WASDE report on September 11th.

The USDA actually lowered projected corn yield by 2.2 bushels per acre and also lowered projected corn production by 213 million bushels while increasing soybean production. As corn yield was reduced down to 178.5 bushels per acre putting total corn production at 15.8 billion bushels down from 16.013 billion bushels. This would still be the second largest corn crop on record. Usage is still huge at 16.18 billion bushels down from 16.33 billion bushels in August. The ending stocks for 2026/2027 crop were lowered to 1.56 billion bushels down from 1.653 billion bushels last month.

On the soybean side the USDA increased national yield to 52.8 bushels per acre up from 52.7 bushels per acre last month. This puts domestic production at 4.53 billion bushels up from the 4.519 billion bushels in August. The USDA estimated beginning soybean stocks at 325 million bushels unchanged from August. Demand for soybeans was up slightly resulting in ending stocks of 310 million bushels down from 320 million bushels last month. Brazil’s soybean production is estimated 186 MMT while Argentina is coming in at 50 MMT. USDA has estimated US wheat production to come in at 1.531 billion bushels for 2026/27 unchanged from last month. They will be releasing a small grain summary at the end of September which will update all wheat numbers.

On September 11th, corn, soybeans and wheat were higher than the last Market Trends report. December 2026 corn futures were at $5.30 a bushel. Dec 2027 corn was at $5.32 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $12.96 bu. The December 2026 wheat futures closed at $7.25 a bushel. The Minneapolis Dec 2026 wheat futures closed at $7.25 a bushel with the Sept 2027 contract closing at $7.58 a bushel.
The nearby oil futures as of September 11th, 2026, closed at $100.05/barrel higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $82.40/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.26/gallon, higher vs the $2.23/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on September 11th, 2026, was .7212 US, higher vs the .7207 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

Harvest is in the foreseeable future in Ontario in fact some soybean fields in the deep southwest of Ontario are within a week of harvest as of September the 11th. Soybean fields for the most part are golden across the province and corn continues to dry down. Generally speaking, crops are quite excellent with corn yields likely to be over 200 bushels per acre provincially with soybeans over 50 bushels per acre.

There are variations on this theme regionally as some areas were very dry in July but very wet in August. Realistically, rainfall might be average, but it does depend on when you get it. Eastern Ontario has been wet most of the summer and this will likely result in bigger yields, but it also could result in compromised soybean yields because of white mold. Needless to say, harvest is about to start and a dry extended September and October would be welcome

Ontario basis levels for both new crop corn and new crop soybeans have increased since last month. This is a function of the low Canadian dollar fluttering around $0.72 but also the time of year. Early corn harvest is always a thing in southwestern Ontario to capture basis opportunities. It may be again this year. Cash price levels above $7.00 for corn and above $17.00 for soybeans is much higher than a year ago.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.75 to $1.88 over the December 2026 corn futures on Sept 11th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.45 to $1.66 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.94 to $4.66 over the November 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.70 to $4.25 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW old crop wheat prices as of Sept 11th are approximately $8.50. For July 2027 new crop the bid is in the $8.94/bu. range. On Sept 11th the US replacement price for corn was $7.73/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

The September WASDE in many ways should have landed as a thud with big crops coming. However, that didn’t necessarily happen even though soybeans were down hard on the day. The corn yield was cut but this was expected and at the same time old crop demand was increased and ending stocks decreased. The soybean yields also increased to a record crop being expected but demand continues to be on fire. So, we are at higher prices than one might expect with such big crops coming

Of course, no one knows the future but there are still vast production fields on the global playing field. We know that our Brazilian friends we’ll be ramping up planting into October on one of the largest soybean crops ever. This will likely be impacted by the continuing super El Nino which is inundating the northwest coast of South America. Often times, this can be detrimental to South American production in 2027.

This year in soybeans we had 5.8 million increase in planted acres from the previous year. With this you have a 52.8 bushel per acre yield predicted by the USDA. Ending stocks are actually 15 million bushels less than a year ago. In many ways that is unsustainable as the US crush industry is growing and so is exports. In many ways it means next year in 2027 there’ll be a real tussle for acres.

Keep in mind we have some of the highest futures prices for corn, soybeans and wheat in about three years and at a certain point we have to relate that to net income and how it might be taken advantage of. Yes, farm inputs have gone up but increased diesel fuel is a lot different than decreased cost in fertilizer relative to last year. Sometimes we have to take yes for an answer and market the crop at prices we could have never imagined in the spring.

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

The USDA corn number is big, but we cannot negate the futures levels are elevated and that we have dropped below 10% on the stocks to use ratio, which is at 9.7%. At these levels corn prices become much more volatile, not necessarily reflecting the big supply coming from the second largest US corn crop ever.

Will we go back and breach the December corn $5.49 level? It’s hard to say much of that might depend on further yield reductions from USDA which can often happen when yield has been lowered into September. Also, too will those higher prices come in the March contract if the Brazilian Safrinha crop gets in trouble. There are a lot of balls juggling in the corn market.

The December 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 15 cents lower than the March 2027 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2026 corn futures contract is at the 33rd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Clearly there are a lot of soybeans. Price levels are what they are with the November contract just under $13. You’ve got to believe there’d be a lot of selling across the scale with prices at these levels. There is also the Chinese buying which has been quite healthy about halfway to the goal of 25 MMT into China.

We also have the visit from President Xi on September 24th which might have a big impact on soybean prices. Chinese buying has been good, but will it get even better, and will there be an announcement, on September 24th?

The November 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 15.5 cents below the January 2027 contract considered bearish for old crop soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 42nd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

Wheat prices are very strong and maybe the market should be rewarded before wheat prices do what wheat prices do, always the unpredictable. As it is, we’ve got the highest wheat prices in about 3 years. We have had the lowest wheat acreage in the United States since the turn of the century but it’s likely with these increased wheat prices we pick up wheat acres for next year. The shenanigans of war in the Black Sea continue to impact global wheat prices.

In Ontario this has helped wheat prices go to substantial highs over $9 in the last few weeks. In fact, $9.50 wheat for next year was in the offing. Ontario producers will certainly be planning how many acres to plant this fall and much of that will depend on good fall weather. As per usual, especially with prices increased you can expect over 1,000,000 acres or more of Ontario wheat to be planted this fall.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

The Canadian dollar continues to flutter around the 72-cent US level which continues to add stimulus to Ontario cash grain prices. This is especially true when futures prices have increased substantially over the last six weeks. The simple conversion into Canadian currency at these increased futures values makes the optics better. Oil prices have also helped because of the problems that the Strait of Hormuz presents.

It is no secret that Canada and the US are involved in a direct trade war at the present time. This no doubt is a detriment to the loonie’s value as we move ahead. However, there has been some resilience in the Canadian economic numbers despite the trade war. Canada’s second quarter GDP grew at an annual realized rate of 3.3% with exports up 3.6% and domestic demand recovering. However, we will see what happens next. Trade negotiations have been suspended. The loonie surely is in flux.

We still have the regular geopolitical problems that are affecting the grain market. There is really no truth about the Strait of Hormuz and it’s similar between Russia and Ukraine. Oil prices have been compromised and so has grain transport out of the Black Sea. You can make the argument that you should ignore the noise and concentrate on grain fundamentals, but it is hard to do. It surely will continue to impact grain prices when you least expect it.

Interestingly enough, all of this and the above is likely to affect 2027 acres. With wheat prices higher there will likely be less acres available for corn and soybeans next year. It could surely will create an environment for price to ration those acres. The same thing will probably be true in Ontario. The challenge for grain producers will be to keep abreast of all of these marketing factors. Remember, daily market intelligence will remain key especially as we go into this harvest season. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead.