Grain Market Commentary for October 18, 2017

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT December 3.48  01 cents
Soybeans CBOT November 9.84  08 cents
Wheat CBOT December 4.30  01 cents
Wheat Minn. December 6.10  02 cents
Wheat Kansas December 4.28  02 cents
Chicago Oats December 2.68  06 cents
Canadian $ December 0.8025  0.10 points

Corn

Corn actually ran the stops on the December contract lows last week and closed the day higher. This is a good initial move to allow higher prices in the coming weeks. The only problem with this short sighted plan is that the weekly continuation chart shows a low of $3.28 as the old bottom, while the daily December chart now still shows contract lows are $3.40.

With the harvest well under way, we will need more bearish news if the markets plan to slip below last week’s stops; and if that were to happen, there is a better than average chance that we will indeed challenge the $3.28 lows for the 2017 crop year. Support is still seen at the $3.40 level on the December contract, while overhead resistance is seen at $3.60.

Short term indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.

Soybeans

We had our pop towards the $10 mark as indicated in last week’s commentary. We are now getting a check back in prices but the bullish formation is still intact. We are still expecting much higher prices in 2018 and this week we received a red buy signal on our weekly charts.

Support is seen at $9.40 and our overhead resistance is at the $10 mark on the November contract.

Both short and medium term indicators are now positive, but the primary trend is still down.

Wheat

We mentioned in our last commentary that the recent lows in the December wheat contract would soon be tested, and as of October 18 we are trading at $4.30 per bushel. Our recent bottom is pegged at $4.28 with our contract low being recorded at $4.22 and our weekly chart shows $4 as the yearly low. Either way, we have several targets in our sights and hopefully one of them will signal a bottoming action for some price relief.

For now, the $4 bottom on the weekly chart from September 1 could be the required test for support. Initial support still sits at $4.20 with solid support at $4 on the December chart, while overhead resistance is viewed at $4.60.

Short term indicators are still negative and the primary trend is still down.

Harvest 2017 prices as of the close, October 18 are as follows: SWW @ $183.15/MT ($4.98/bu), HRW @ $192.30/MT ($5.23/bu), HRS @ $238.09/MT ($6.48/bu), SRW @ $187.72/MT ($5.11/bu).

Grain Market Commentary for October 12, 2017

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT December 3.49  06 cents
Soybeans CBOT November 9.92  34 cents
Wheat CBOT December 4.30  12 cents
Wheat Minn. December 6.12  02 cents
Wheat Kansas December 4.26  10 cents
Chicago Oats December 2.62  16 cents
Canadian $ December 0.8030  0.15 points

Corn

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report was released at noon on October 12 and the corn yield came in at 171.8 bushels per acre compared to an average guess of 1.70. The only positive number was the world carryout of 201 million tonnes, down from September’s carryout of 202.47 million tonnes. The December contract rallied on the report but not before notching a new low in the December futures at 3.42 1/2. This was a new December contract low, but it did not stick and the corn settled up on the day by three cents per bushel. Although the $3.40 support level that we identified on the December futures contract has been negated, the market looks like it merely ran the stops at this point and we have now tested this area four times.

Now that the corn harvest is well underway in the U.S., there is a good possibility that we can start to see some relief from the downward pressure on cash prices in the coming months unless we have a surprise in next month’s report. Support is still seen at the $3.40 level on the December contract, while overhead resistance is seen at $3.60.

Short term indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.

Soybeans

We had a positive reaction to the October USDA report as the November new crop soybeans had a good rally closing up 28 cents per bushel at $9.93 on the November contract.

Although the 2017 production numbers were unchanged from September, both the yields and carryouts locally and globally were reduced.

Looking at our charts, there now seems to be a definitive bullish pattern emerging. This pattern is a longer term formation that suggest much higher prices into next year. Of course this is my analysis and everybody has their opinion. Support is seen at $9.40 with major support now at $9. Overhead resistance is at $10.

The indicators are mixed, but the primary trend is still down.

Wheat

The only new numbers for wheat in the October USDA report were both carry out numbers for the U.S and globally. Both of these numbers showed a bit of an increase and pressured wheat in the futures markets after the release of the report. The December contract managed to limit its losses for the session but there is still a red sell signal and a recent bottom that will likely be challenged in the coming week before we see some upside movement on that contract.

For now the $4 bottom from September 1 could be the required test for support. Once that bottom has been proven, we should see some downside price relief. Initial support still sits at $4.20 with solid support at $4 on the December chart, while overhead resistance is viewed at $4.60 – $4.80.

Short term indicators are negative and the primary trend is still down.

Harvest 2017 prices as of the close, October 12 are as follows: SWW @ $183.52/MT ($4.99/bu), HRW @ $192.67/MT ($5.24/bu), HRS @ $238.89/MT ($6.50/bu), SRW @ $188.09/MT ($5.12/bu).

Grain Market Commentary for October 4, 2017

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT December 3.48  06 cents
Soybeans CBOT November 9.58  07 cents
Wheat CBOT December 4.42  17 cents
Wheat Minn. December 6.10  40 cents
Wheat Kansas December 4.36  22 cents
Chicago Oats December 2.46  02 cents
Canadian $ December 0.8015  0.15 points

Corn

Although the $3.45 support level that we identified on the December futures contract has been tested three times in the past three weeks, there is a very good possibility that prices may turn lower as we come into harvest. We are currently trading at $3.47, and there is room to slip lower, according to both the daily and weekly charts. If we close below the $3.45 level on the December contract, we will more than likely challenge the $3.30 initial support. We could possibly even take a shot at the $3 level before the harvest is complete.

Our first resistance level is at the $3.60 on the December contract.

Short term indicators have turned negative, and the primary trend is still down.

Soybeans

We have more of the same in soybeans as far as price action goes. The beans seem to be somewhat range-bound. It will be interesting to see the next full report as harvest goes on. The soybean contract for new crop November futures is currently trading at the $9.60 level, and the short term indicators are still negative. We could easily retest the all-important $9 level once again before the harvest is complete. If that level were to fail, I still maintain that a visit to the $8.50 level on the lead month is still possible. The primary trend is down, and we could still rally towards the $10 price without changing the chart formation.

The short term indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.

Wheat

Wheat continues to find solid support this week. We have inched higher by 20 cents per bushel since our $4.20 bottom, but more importantly we have received a red buy signal on the daily charts. This is encouraging, and it suggests that since we hit our first target of $4.60 last week, we could be ready to challenge the next resistance level of $4.80 on the December contract in the coming weeks.

Support still sits at $4.20 on the December chart, while overhead resistance is viewed at $4.70 – $4.80. The slow, steady movement in prices is a good sign, but we need to keep in mind that the primary trend is down, and these rallies should be viewed as selling opportunities for most farmers.

Short term indicators are now positive but the primary trend is still down.

Harvest 2017 prices as of the close, October 4 are as follows: SWW @ $188.93/MT ($5.14/bu), HRW @ $198.10/MT ($5.39/bu), HRS @ $238.91/MT ($6.50/bu), SRW @ $193.51/MT ($5.27/bu).