Grain Market Commentary for January 11, 2017

January 11, 2017

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT March 3.57  03 cents
Soybeans CBOT March 10.11  05 cents
Wheat CBOT March 4.19  01 cents
Wheat Minn. March 5.61  17 cents
Wheat Kansas March 4.32  05 cents
Chicago Oats March 2.32  07 cents
Canadian $ March 0.7590  0.75 points

Corn

With the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE) released at noon today, we saw a reduction in corn yields and also in carryout. The corn markets were flat at the close as of January 12. The upper end of our range-bound $3.40 – $3.60 corn price was tested today, but we failed to close above there. If we manage to close above the $3.60 resistance in the coming week, we could trade another 20 cents higher on the March contract.

Meanwhile, our overhead resistance remains at $3.60 while support is seen at $3.40. Short term and weekly indicators are now positive but the main trend is still down.

Soybeans

Reduced yields were also the focus of the WASDE report on soybeans. The report had a bullish interpretation as the March contract found solid support once again at the $10. level and closed 28 cents per bushel higher at the close of the trading session. The resistance level of $10.40 was a clear obstacle as the rally stopped dead. We will find out in the next few trading sessions if we have any more momentum on the upside. Initial support is still at the $10 level and once we clear the $10.40 level a challenge of the $10.70 will be a tougher test.

All indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.

Wheat

Faced with the lowest acreage planting numbers in a very long time, the CBOT March contract ran the stops above the $4.28 highs after the WASDE report. Later in the session prices retreated once again and settled at our resistance levels of $4.26, but still up 7 cents per bushel on the day. We received a red buy signal last week on the March weekly contract. This is a positive sign even if we pull back from these levels. The topic of the day was once again the HRS wheat as prices are completing our inverted head and shoulders we spoke of last month. Prices have gained more than 40 cents per bushel on the HRS March contract.

Meanwhile initial support is still seen on the March CBOT at the $4 level and overhead resistance is at $4.30 – $4.45. Both short and intermediate term indicators are now positive but the primary trend is still down.

Harvest 2017 crop cash prices as of close on January 11, 2017
SWW @ $176.19 ($4.80/bu), HRW @ $173.76/MT ($4.73/bu),
HRS @ $225.55/MT ($6.14/bu), SRW @ $178.60/MT ($4.86/bu).

Grain Market Commentary for January 5, 2017

January 5, 2017

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT March 3.60  12 cents
Soybeans CBOT March 10.16  01 cents
Wheat CBOT March 4.18  12 cents
Wheat Minn. March 5.44  13 cents
Wheat Kansas March 4.26  17 cents
Chicago Oats March 2.39  11 cents
Canadian $ March 0.7515  1.28 points

Corn

Another short week and typical holiday style move as most participants were away for the Christmas season. The corn crept back up to the resistance levels of $3.60 – $3.65 on the March contract. As with Labour Day weekend, most U.S. holidays can create market reversals when you look in the rear view mirror. This holiday produced a red buy signal on our daily chart. This is only an indication that there could be higher prices in the coming weeks as it is only a daily chart and not the weekly or monthly chart. Corn now looks ready to try and close above our resistance levels, and if they can do so, we could see a nice 15 to 20 cent rally from these levels. Meanwhile, our overhead resistance remains at the $3.65 level, based on the close of the March contract. Support is seen at $3.35 with our major support level back at $3.

Although indicators are mixed, the main trend is still down.

Soybeans

Soybeans rallied over the holidays from the $10 support level, but unlike corn, the charts are not as bullish. Overhead resistance sits at the $10.30 – $10.60 level based on the March contract, while the main trend line resistance is around $11.

All indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.

Wheat

The March CBOT wheat contract had a productive week as the daily charts flirted with our $4.20 resistance levels. We are currently still at that price, but we need a close above the $4.25 level on the March contract before we get too excited. Short term indicators have turned neutral to positive but we have a lot of work to do before we get this market to turn bullish. The $4 support level has proven itself and we should see a move higher into the spring.

Meanwhile, HRS wheat has been the strong performer and we have an inverted head and shoulders formation which suggests another 30 to 40 cents higher in the coming months or sooner. Meanwhile, initial support is seen at the $4 level on March and resistance is at $4.25 – $4.30. Short term indicators are neutral to positive but the intermediate and primary trends are still down.

Harvest 2017 crop cash prices as of close on January 5, 2017
SWW @ $172.40 ($4.69/bu), HRW @ $169.91/MT ($4.62/bu),
HRS @ $216.93/MT ($5.90/bu), SRW @ $174.89/MT ($4.76/bu).