Ontario Grain Marketing Commentary, September 11, 2019

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT Dec3.60↓ 01 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 8.66↓ 09 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 4.77↑ 15 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.02↑ 09 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 3.98↑ 13 cents
Oats CBOT Dev 2.80↑ 13 cents
Canadian $ Sep 0.7575 ↑ 0.12 points

Corn

The $3.50 support we mentioned in our last commentary held once again as we head into the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report on September 12 at noon. The results could be anyone’s guess. If we get a knee-jerk sell-off, it could be the catalyst for the bottom, or we could see September (cash) corn futures challenge the $3.30 – $3.40 price on our charts. Only time will tell.

Short-term indicators for corn are bearish, but there is a better than average chance that September 2019 will prove to be a major bottom in the years to come.  

Soybeans

November soybean futures are still stuck in a no-trade zone between $8.50 and $9.25. With the USDA report release, we may see some direction in the market. Meanwhile, there is no clear direction. Support remains at $8.40 – $8.50 on November futures with critical support at the $7.80 – $8 level and overhead resistance at the $9.25 level.  

All indicators remain negative and the primary trend is still down.

Wheat

December wheat futures had a positive week as they closed at $4.77 (September 11). I received a red buy signal this week, but this does not mean we won’t get a drop after the release of the USDA report. The charts look supportive and I still feel we will trend higher over the fall months. Either way, I expect to see a quick recovery if we drop significantly after the September USDA report is released. 

I am still of the opinion that the wheat futures will find a bottom this fall. I base this solely on my technical analysis.

The primary trend is still neutral to bullish.   

Harvest 2019 prices as of the close,September 11, 2019 are as follows:
SWW
@ $248.20/MT ($6.75/bu), HRW @ $257.89/MT ($7.02/bu), 
 HRS @ $228.81/MT ($6.23/bu),  SRW @ $245.77/MT ($6.69/bu).