Market Trends Report – March & April 2026

US and the World

In mid-March it is that time of year when planters are either rolling in the southern regions of the American corn belt or are being adjusted for the planting season that is almost upon us. It has been an eventful winter to say the least with prices advancing especially in the last few weeks with war breaking out in the Middle East between the United States, Israel, and Iran. War markets are never easy to explain, always filled with uncertainty. It will make it challenging as all of our planters get ready to roll. Amid all of this upset, the USDA released their latest WASDE report on March 10th.

The March USDA report was a bit of status quo compared to reports of the past. There were no domestic changes for corn soybeans and wheat but a few changes globally. US corn production is still pegged at 17.02 billion bushels with the yield forecast of 186.5 bushels per acre. This is a huge number which should remain a benchmark for all producers this year. Total domestic use for US corn is still pegged at 13.17 billion bushels with ending stocks coming in at 2.127 billion bushels. USDA increased Brazil’s corn production by 1 MMT to 132 MMTs. Argentinian Production was decreased by the same amount down to 30.7 MMTs.

These were all the same from the February report, but the US crush was increased slightly to 2.575 billion bushels. The total soybean usage was projected at 4.262 billion bushels reflecting the slight increase in the soybean crush. Soybean ending stocks are still projected to come in at 350 million bushels. Brazilian soybean production was kept the same at 180 MMTS but Argentinian soybean production was actually decreased slightly down to 48 MMTs. US domestic wheat stocks were unchanged from 931 million bushels. Globally, wheat stocks were down slightly from the February report.

On March 14th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. May 2026 corn futures was at $4.67 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.91 bu. The May 2026 soybean futures was at $12.25 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.61. The May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.13 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.45 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.75 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of March 13th closed at $98.71/barrel much higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.89/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.16/gallon, up vs the $2.03/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on March 13th, 2026, was .7291 US, down vs the .7345 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

Winter is still holding on in Ontario although there was a bit of a thaw in early March where much of the snow disappeared. On the weekend of March 14th some areas of Ontario were hit again with heavy snow. The winter wheat that has emerged from the snow looks quite good at this time. Producers will be hoping for good weather ahead.

Basis levels for grains have increased slightly over the last 30 days partly related to the Canadian dollar still under $0.73 and or the appreciation in grain futures value. There is not as much grain in Ontario bins as there usually is especially in eastern Ontario and basis does reflect this.

Basis levels in Ontario are also fluid and will probably continue to be throughout 2026 until harvest time. Yes, we still have a lot of empty space in eastern Ontario because of the drought last year. We will have to see how that changes depending on the crop develops this summer. On top of that we always have the movement of the Canadian dollar which will affect basis levels to producers. All of this is a moving target and something that producers always have to have their eye on.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.30 to $2.28 over the May 2026 corn futures on March 13th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.60 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.25 to $4.04 over the May 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.04 to $3.34 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.56. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $7.40/bu range. On March 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.89/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

Forget about what you been thinking, it’s all about the war now. About four years ago we saw what the Ukraine and Russia war did to the commodity market with wheat exploding higher. However, it was unexpected to some extent when the Americans and Israelis attacked Iran about 12 days ago and with that it upset the grain market apple cart. Funds who had been net short the market suddenly were exiting their positions. Also too, the price of oil exploded and there was spillover effect in grains. It simply is a new world in 2026.

Keep in mind it is so difficult to know where we’re going. Much of it will depend on how long it lasts but is likely to last long. The oil market was languishing in the $50s and $60s but now pushed up toward $120.00 briefly on the futures market. The Strait of Hormuz have been blocked which is transit to about 20% of the world’s oil. In many ways this is a Black Swan we didn’t see coming. For a world that is full of grain seemingly only a few weeks ago now there is a completely different planning horizon.

Prices have risen substantially over the last month and especially in the last two weeks. This is happening despite bearish fundamentals that have kept the lid on grain prices for quite some time. It will also probably raise the specter of extreme volatility as we could be facing a world calamity not seen in quite a few years.

The Brazil harvest in soybeans is coming to a completion and it is record setting once again. As these soybeans are being harvested, planters are in the fields with the second crop of corn for Brazil. This means that there will not only be the war risk, but we are also in a weather market watching how much moisture these new corn plants will be provided. There is a world of risk out there.

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

With the war on going, it is no secret that prices are going higher for both fuel and fertilizer. With corn a bigger user of fertilizer than soybeans it would seem that the funds are remaining a little bit more neutral on the corn acres that could be planted this spring. We will find that out in the March 31st USDA report.

In the meantime, to some extent corn will follow the price of oil and the funds are setting up to go long depending on the immediate future. At the present time they don’t have a big, long position, but this could certainly change and when it changes to could change in a big way. However, the state of acres for 2026 is still in flux. Earlier the USDA had pitched 94 million acres of corn in their outlook conference.

The May 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 11.25 cents lower than the July 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The May 2026 corn futures contract is at the 19th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

The soybean market has been fairly effusive even before the war started. It also is sensitive to the social media posts coming out of the White House. Earlier, the American president had said that he hoped China would come in and buy an extra 8 MMTs of soybeans in the immediate future. Since then, there hasn’t been any American beans sold and Brazilian beans are still a dollar a bushel below American values.

There is a meeting scheduled in Beijing between President Trump and President Xi at the end of March and early April. It’s hard to know now exactly what will come from this meeting especially with the war going on. However, it has not been beyond the realm of possibility that new soybean buying announcements would come from this meeting. However, the new price volatility caused by the war may eat that narrative alive. Earlier the USDA had mused about 85 million soybean acres for this year in the United States. That number will be refreshed on March 31st, and it certainly also will be enhanced by any announcement coming from the potential meeting of the leaders in Beijing.

The May 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 12.5 cents below the July contract considered bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 33rd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

There is wheat everywhere but keep in mind that this is war and wheat prices are up about a dollar a bushel since the end of January. With the war seemingly chasing out the market bears, it is likely that wheat prices will be a bit more sensitive to weather concerns going forward such as dryness in many of the worlds production areas where wheat is coming out of dormancy. It’s also true that wheat might just be explosive based on a volatile nature of war in the Strait of Hormuz. It’s hard to imagine wheat prices going back down in this environment but that spectre also exists.

In Ontario it is an important time coming up for wheat about to break dormancy. Fields in the deep southwest of the province are already very green and nitrogen application will likely take place very soon for the early birds. According to Agricorp there are 1,046,568 wheat acres this year in Ontario. Currently prices are about a dollar higher than they were last year for wheat off the combine in July of 2026.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

The Canadian dollar continues to flutter around the 73 cent US level. The war has actually caused an increase in the value of the American dollar which is always negative for the Canadian dollar. This has continually added stimulus to Ontario gain crash prices. Keep in mind there is a war going on none and none of this is stable and as producers we must watch our currency fluctuations to capture good basis levels especially on soybeans.

It’s important to keep in mind then when it comes to grain marketing we’re still on the long road. Yes, we should expect extreme gyrations based on the geopolitics of the day. For instance, we all know that the price of oil is in the crosshairs. If it continues to go up possibly over $125.00 a barrel you could see the funds take their money and get it into grains. Keep in mind the non-commercial demand which is commonly referred to as funds will have no loyalty during this difficult time of war.

Of course, as always nobody knows what is about to happen. For new crop pricing surely there have been some market orders hit already as December corn was headed toward $5 and beans were headed toward $12.00. We also have the tremendous costs involved this year of higher fertilizer and higher fuel prices which seems to be getting worse after already being high. Much will depend on geopolitical events in the war, and much will depend on the price of oil and how much a jilted global economy becomes. Market orders can be one of the best ways to capture these price opportunities.

It is a long road to payday for Ontario grain producers. It might be argued that the latest geopolitical event with the problems in the Middle East is an opportunity and a gift along the marketing highway. This has happened despite grain fundamentals which are onerous suggesting price goes the other way. We need to set up for success. It is a difficult time for sure based on the war. Keep in mind risk management is a continual process and there will be many marketing opportunities ahead. Daily market intelligence will remain key.