Market Trends Report – October & November 2026

US and the World

Harvest time is in full swing across the greater North American corn belt. As of October, the 4th 23% of US corn has been harvested which is 4 percentage points behind the five-year average of 27%. On the soybean side 25% of American soybeans have been harvested as of October the 5th. This is 8 percentage points behind the five-year average of 33%. In other words, harvest has been progressing at full bore with some complications from wet weather. Of course, when the sun shines and the wind blows harvest will surely continue. On October 9th the USDA came out with their latest WASDE report.

The USDA shocked the market by raising corn yield by 2.7 bushels per acre to 181.2 bushels per acre. This had the effect of raising production from 15.8 billion bushels to 16.03 billion bushels. This was at the high end of expectations and exceeded them in certain cases. Ending stocks for 2026/27 were raised to 1.849 billion bushels up from the 1.567 billion bushels in September. US corn exports were projected at 3.3 billion bushels up 25 million bushels from last month. Total usage now comes in at 16.305 billion bushels up from 16.18 billion bushels last month.

The USDA increased the soybean crop forecast from last month. USDA is now estimating farmers will grow 4.562 billion bushels of soybeans with the trend line yield estimate of 53.1 bushels per acre planted on 86.9 million acres with harvest acreage coming in at 85.9 million. This was within trade expectations as the numbers are overall neutral for soybeans. For old crop soybeans the domestic ending stocks fell to 315 million bushels. USDA pegged US wheat production at 1.534 billion bushels.

On October 9th, corn, soybeans and wheat were lower than the last Market Trends report. December 2026 corn futures were at $4.79 a bushel. Dec 2027 corn was at $5.11 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $12.92 bu. The December 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.71 a bushel. The Minneapolis Dec 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.71 a bushel with the July 2027 contract closing at $6.95 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of October 9th, 2026, closed at $91.85/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $100.05/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.28/gallon, higher vs the $2.26/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on October 9th, 2026, was .7007 US, lower vs the .7212 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

In Ontario a good stretch of harvest weather in the first week of October helped farmers get into the fields to harvest soybeans and plant wheat right behind the combine. As of October 7th, 2026, Grain Farmers of Ontario estimate 44% of Ontario soybeans have been harvested. Yields have been good even above average in many areas in southwestern Ontario.

Ontario basis levels for corn have softened over the last month despite the Canadian dollar going down to 0.7007 US. There also were some early premiums for corn that was harvested before October the 15th in southwestern Ontario. The soybean basis has been very reflective of the lower Canadian dollar and maintained much of its value since last month.

Headwinds have been the order of the day with regard to the Canadian dollar with some economic numbers for the Canadian economy being lower than expected as well as separatist concerns in both Quebec and Alberta. In many ways this might represent an opportunity to price cash grain versus an ascendant loonie sometime later. As always, it is a great challenge for Ontario farmers to balance both grain futures gyrations versus the value of the Canadian dollar.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.30 to $1.61 over the December 2026 corn futures on Oct 9th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.30 over Dec 2027 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.90 to $4.25 over the November 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.50 to $4.05 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW old crop wheat prices as of Oct 11thth are approximately $8.00. For July 2027 new crop the bid is in the $8.40/bu. range. On October 11th the US replacement price for corn was $7.11/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

Let’s be clear, the USDA corn number being raised on October 9th by 2.7 bushels per acre was a shocker the market didn’t expect. The trade had been expecting a lower number reflecting early harvest results and we got just the opposite. Corn initially dropped limit down with some long liquidation going on but buyers came in at the end of the day, but we still saw December corn lose $0.20 per bushel.

Factors with regard to future price direction is what is going to happen in South America. With a super El Nino taking place it could easily impact crop production going forward within the next few months. For instance, it is likely means hot and dry weather for Matto Grosso in Brazil. At this moment it is all still in play. But it’s something we must think about as we price new crop grain coming into our bins.

Keep in mind that the super El Nino issue effects more than South America. There are also issues with regard to it affecting palm oil production in South and Southeast Asia where countries like India depend on cooking oil greatly. India for instance has not been able to get as much sunflower oil from Russia as usual and are importing soybean oil. This is largely due to the Super El Nino effect on climate this year.

It would seem that the zesty bullishness we saw with the August rally in corn and soybeans has gone. However, it might be too early to say that even with prices much lower. It does serve as a lesson to all of us though an opportunity and invitation within the market is sent, sometimes we should accept that invitation to price grain. However, within this market fund selling and buying can lead to volatile market reaction. In 2026, that’s still very real

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

With December corn at $4.79 a bushel is it on sale to the end user? There’s lots of argument that this is an opportunity for buyers to come in looking at a discount of approximately $0.65 a bushel from the market highs earlier. Countries like Mexico and China surely are looking at this opportunity.

Of course, you could make the argument that the USDA is never wrong so despite the naysayers regarding this unusual number there is always a January USDA final report to correct everything. Needless to say, it has never been a secret this is the second largest corn crop in history and as we continue into harvest it looks like we are getting there.

The December 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 14.5 cents lower than the March 2027 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2026 corn futures contract is at the 22nd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

US export sales of soybeans have slowed over the last month as higher prices have done their job temporary slowing demand. An argument can be made that the futures price of $12.92 is an opportunity for China to come in and buy again as they are approximately halfway to their stated goal of buying 25 MMT of American soybeans.

The long-anticipated meeting between President Xi and President Trump is now in the rearview mirror and it did not result in any grand agricultural buy from the Chinese. In fact, Chinese tariffs on American soybeans remain. At the end of the day panda bears to the United States was the big deal. Needless to say, these two countries appear very friendly, and this is always good for our agricultural sales

The November 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 17 cents below the January 2027 contract considered bearish for old crop soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 41st percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

The Black Sea wheat situation continues to have a major impact on wheat prices worldwide. At the present time Russia is at a five year low with wheat exports with continual antagonism between Russia and Ukraine. Infrastructure has been hit which continues to limit exports. However, the wheat is there and will eventually be exported. As per usual, wheat is grown everywhere in the world and while Russian exports are down it’s being filled by other countries around the world. With the European and American crop being smaller this year, we cannot afford another production shortfall beyond that.

In Ontario wheat drills are following combines throughout the province with good progress being made through October the 11th. As per usual we are hoping for over 1 million plus acres of wheat to be planted and much of that will depend on weather going into Halloween. Wheat prices at $8 a bushel are higher than the last two years which should serve as an incentive to plant.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

The Canadian dollar dropping down to .7007 cents US on October the 9th reflected a bit of a minefield for the Canadian loonie. Canadian job numbers were worse than expected with Canada having lost 68,300 jobs in September when a positive number were expected. This combined with a widening interest rate gap between the United States and Canada continues to be bearish for the Canadian dollar. On top of that as per usual a rising U.S. dollar usually means a lower Canadian dollar and that has been happening.

Geopolitics continues to form somewhat of a floor on crop prices. For instance, the Iran US war continues but at a low level with the US midterms looming. On top of that there is the continuation of the conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, recently manifested in 12 people dying in the bombing at the Riyadh airport. All of this combined with Ukraine and Russia has the effect of a continued instability on energy prices which indirectly affects the grain prices. Expect that to continue.

In the next few months, we will have more USDA reports culminating in the January 2027 final crop numbers report. There’s no question the October report did shock a lot of analysts within the market. Keep in mind that some might say that the USDA did do its job by creating trade volume and volatility. Others might say they simply were counting the beans. Needless to say, on wherever you stand with regard to that the next few reports culminating in January will nuance these numbers. Our trading algorithms will respond accordingly.

It has been a pretty good year in Ontario agriculture, no extended drought like we saw last year in eastern Ontario. Grain prices have also been higher than the last two years and there have been invitations sent and marketing opportunities have been captured. As we move ahead the challenge for Ontario grain producers will be to measure all of these different market factors as they continue to accumulate as we bring this crop home. Remember, risk management never grows old. Daily market intelligence remains key. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead.