Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report July 6, 2026

US and the World

It has been a solidly good spring in the American Midwest with no major planting issues. On June 29th USDA estimated 67% of the US corn crop was good to excellent while soybeans we’re rated at 65% good to excellent. June 30th always represents a benchmark for grain markets with the release of the June 30th acreage report. Acreage is important and in past years the June 30th acreage report would often serve as a volatile reminder of how prices can ebb and flow. Sometimes the changes in the report can be dramatic, and sometimes not. 2026 proved to be the latter.

USDA is estimating that there will be 95.3 million acres of corn in the United States this year. This is down 3.5 million acres from last year’s 98.8 million acres of corn. This acreage is the 5th largest on record but points to the second largest corn crop ever after last year. The quarterly corn stocks number came in at 5.29 billion bushels which was up 14% from 2025.

Soybeans were the benefactor from the lower corn numbers. US soybean acreage is set to come in at 85.4 million acres this year. This is 5% higher than a year ago. The quarterly stocks numbers for soybeans came in at 1.06 million bushels which was 5% higher than a year ago. The bigger surprise in the acreage equation was wheat which came in at 42.7 million acres, 1.1 million acres below expectations. This will be the lowest US wheat acreage on record.

On July 3rd corn, soybeans and wheat were higher than the last Market Trends report. September 2026 corn futures was at $4.23 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.41 bu. The August 2026 soybean futures was at $11.36 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.47. The Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.99 a bushel. The Minneapolis Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.18 a bushel with the September 2027 contract closing at $6.89 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of July 3rd, 2026, closed at $68.78/barrel much lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $84.88/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.17/gallon, lower vs the $2.18/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on July 3rd, 2026, was .7042 US, down vs the .7155 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

In Ontario things are looking pretty good. Very hot weather has pushed development in both corn and soybeans. There is dryness in southwestern Ontario where a widespread rain would be welcome especially going into pollination for the corn crop. However, it is a different story in eastern Ontario where they’ve had widespread rains and it is such a different story than last year when drought ruled the day. Winter wheat harvest has commenced in Essex County as of early July and this will ramp up across Ontario depending on the weather in the next couple of weeks.

It’s important to remember that Ontario is a big province with croplands stretching from Windsor to the Quebec border as well as up into northern Ontario and as far West as the Rainy River district. This will not only lead to variable conditions province wide but also differences in cash markets. Producers should always be vigilant of this when marketing their grain.

The Canadian dollar has fallen below the $71 US range over the last couple of weeks which is further added stimulus to Ontario cash prices. This has happened at a time when futures prices have risen slightly compared to the lower values of a few weeks ago. This has caused basis levels to strengthen for both corn and soybeans. Keep in mind the traditional higher basis level for eastern Ontario corn is happening reflecting the lower production numbers from last year’s drought as well as a robust export program from Ontario.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.50 to $2.35 over the September 2026 corn futures on July 3rd across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.35 to $1.86 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $4.00 to $4.40 over the August 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.66 to $3.85 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are in flux during harvest by as of July 3rd are approximately $7.30. For July 2027 new crop the bid is in the $7.61/bu range. On June 3rd the US replacement price for corn was $6.53/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

It seems like a little different world now. Earlier when we had the war in Iran in the front pages everyday oil prices surged to $120.00 a barrel. In many ways this dragged corn up over $5 a bushel and $12.00 a bushel for soybeans on the futures market. Even though that conflict is not over and there is a 60-day moratorium of understanding, the edginess in the market from those earlier days is gone. Of course, this has led too much lower prices.

Keep in mind that there has been an exit of non-commercial interests in our grain markets. With the war in Iran starting, we saw the funds accumulate more long positions. At the height of this inflation trade, funds were long 300,000 contracts in corn and 200,000 contracts in soybeans. It was a case of money flow and maybe it continues to be as some of these funds are turning back and buying again. Keep in mind the funds are looked at as villains sometimes but as saviours other times. They add a lot of liquidity to our grain market.

Who knows what the immediate future might bring but one lesson we might take from the last few months is the effect on oil prices on just about everything. For instance, we saw corn, soybeans and wheat go up as oil reached $120.00 a barrel. The same could be said with fertilizer and fuel prices. Now that oil is reach levels since before the Iran war everything is down. It is a benchmark lesson for the future. Geopolitical events which push the price of oil, can push everything and when it’s over it’s over and agricultural commodity prices retreat.

Always a variable in the grain market weather is setting up now as quite interesting. In Europe they have had tremendous heat, and this is having an effect on their corn production. For instance, the most active November European corn futures are moving to contract highs as French corn production may fall 30% in 2026. That is completely opposite to what we are expecting in the United States and South America this year. However, it is an example of what can happen if the weather goes South.

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

It’s getting to be that time of year when corn is stressed. In other words, it’s getting to be that critical time of year and any weather stress whether that’s lack of rain or too much rain or very hot temperatures can impact corn yield significantly. It’s not perfect in the American Midwest but it’s close. The next few weeks will tell the story going into pollination.

In retrospect, we saw about an 80 cent drop in the price of corn from its highs of $5.06 a bushel. The funds now have a small net long position and if the weather goes sideways, they will likely add to that putting corn in a position to rally again. However, will it be enough to get back to the $5 level? The answer is blowing in the wind depending on whether Mother Nature plays nice.

The July 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 8.75 cents lower than the September 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 corn futures contract is at the 6th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Soybeans have resisted the price decreases over the last month, sustained by good demand especially in the soybean oil market which continues to have healthy price increases. Yes, the soybean renewable diesel boom in the United States is making a long-term difference. As we all know, soybeans are made in August, so the jury is still out.

An outlier with regard to soybeans is Chinese demand. The Chinese had bought a little bit earlier, but they’ve still not come in and bought the 25 MMT they committed to in an early agreement after the President’s visit to Beijing. Generally speaking, it’s at this time of the year when they would be buying American beans. There has been no incentive to do so up until now as the American beans are cheaper than Brazilian soybeans. Fresh Chinese buying would significantly boost soybean prices at this time of year.

The August 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 5.25 cents below the September contract considered bearish for old crop soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 25th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

After reaching highs earlier in the spring wheat prices plummeted and now are seemingly rebounding again. Part of the price increase earlier had to do with dry weather in the American wheat country and the war in Iran. Keep in mind that Europe has had extreme heat and drought which is affecting wheat there and this might pressure prices in the weeks to come. However, keep in mind that prices now are still higher than they were a year ago. As always, there is wheat everywhere in the world filling supply gaps. The latest USDA report reiterated the trend by saying the US has the smallest wheat crop on record.

In Ontario early reports from Essex County are showing pretty good wheat yields and pretty good quality. Wheat is turning quickly across the province and the wheat harvest will likely proceed depending on the weather going forward. Cash prices have also been bolstered by a slight rebound in wheat futures and a Canadian dollar in the $0.70 range.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

With the Canadian dollar currently sitting at .7042 US there’s been considerable stimulus added to Canadian cash grain prices. As always, the Canadian dollar is a thinly traded currency and generally is at an inverse value to American dollar. However, it has also been buffeted by a Canadian economy that is slowed and interest rates expectations which have changed. This has been accentuated by the American decision not to renew CUSMA. Will the Canadian dollar go under $0.70 US? It is all so hard to say but eventually it will start the long March back to 80 cents and even $0.90 US. It will always be an added layer within our Ontario grain marketing plans.

Geopolitics continues to be very real, but it also is so dialed in to our grain trading algorithms. The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran runs out on August the 18th and depending on what might happen will also have an effect on a grain price volatility. At the same time Ukrainian drones are reaching deep inside of Russia causing supply constraints and disarray within the Russian war narrative. The possibility these events might reignite oil and grain prices will likely continue.

It is often said that rain makes grain and that is surely true in 2026 as any other year. There is also the narrative that the greatest cure for low prices is low prices. In that regard over the last year and a half we had seen grain demand acceleration. There has been no demand destruction because of high prices however, at a certain point when supply is constrained in some way, we will need grain prices to rise to ration demand. This always needs to be kept in mind within our marketing plans.

As we move into the later parts of July, as stated earlier we will be getting into the critical pollination period for corn, where moisture and mild temperatures are always preferred. After that we will be looking toward August and the soybean pod set and this is always critical to production going forward. The challenge for Ontario producers is to continue to refine their marketing plans to capture the marketing opportunities that will inevitably occur. Risk management never gets old. Daily market intelligence will remain key.