Monthly market trends commentary is written by Philip Shaw, B.Sc. (Agr.), M.Sc.
US and World
It has been an uneven growing season in much of the American corn belt. The Western corn belt has been dry especially in the Dakotas, while the mid south and Eastern corn belt were inundated with heavy rains earlier in the spring. The forecast in late July turned cooler and wetter for all of the American corn belt. This new forecast essentially changed much of the outlook for the American crop, but still many analysts were expecting lower August USDA numbers reflecting some of the earlier tough conditions for US corn and soybeans. Anticipation of the August 10th USDA report was filled with expectations of lower yield projections.
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On August 10th, the USDA lowered their projected corn yield estimate to 169.5 bushels per acre down from their earlier projection of 170.7 bushels per acre and less than last year's 174.6 bushels per acre. At the same time the USDA raised soybean yield expectations to 49.4 bushels per acre up from their 48 bushels per acre earlier estimate. This pegged 2017/18-soybean production at 4.4 billion bushels. Both of these USDA estimates rocked the grain market August 10th, as it was a big surprise. With so much uneven weather affecting this crop in the field a US corn yield of 165-166 bushels per acre was a general trade estimate. Futures prices plummeted on this very bearish report.