Market Trends Report – April & May 2025
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US and the World
April and May are always a busy month on the farm whether that be in Ontario or in the greater North American corn belt. Planters are rolling and auto steer buttons are being pressed as weather is improving and acres are being planted. As of April, the 13th, 6% of the US corn crop and 3% of the US soybean crop in the ground. It’s early of course but it is a start, and those numbers will certainly be rising in the weeks to come as we go into May. Earlier, on April the 10th the USDA released their latest WASDE report.
In this report there was a change in demand for corn, but the production numbers and old crop carryout numbers held their status quo. On the demand side of the equation feed and residual use was 5.75 billion bushels which was down 25 million bushels from the last Market Trends report. Ethanol usage was the same as last month and total domestic corn usage was forecast at 12.64 billion bushels which was down 25 million bushels from the last report. Corn exports were up 100 million bushels to 2.550 billion bushels with old crop ending stocks down 75 million bushels to 1.465 billion bushels.
It was a quiet report on the soybean side of the equation. For instance, the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks by 5 million bushels to 375 million bushels. Globally, the USDA actually boosted ending stocks by 1.06 MMT, to 122.47 MMT. The Brazilian and Argentinian soybean production was left unchanged at 169 MMT and 49 MMT respectively. On the wheat side of the ledger US imports rose 10 million bushels to 150 million bushels. Wheat exports were down 50 million bushels to 820 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks were up 27 million bushels to 846 million bushels.
On April 18th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. May 2025 corn futures was at $4.82 a bushel. Dec 2025 corn were at $4.66 bu. The May 2025 soybean futures stood at $10.36/bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.32 bu. The May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.48 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2025 wheat futures closed at $6.06 a bushel with the September 2025 contract closing at $6.33 a bushel.
The nearby oil futures as of April 18th closed at $64.68/barrel up vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $61.99/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.03/gallon, the same as recorded in the last Market Trends Report.
The Canadian dollar noon rate on April 18th, 2025, was .7217 US, up vs the .7034 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%.
Ontario
In Ontario the 1.1 million acres of wheat is being side dressed with nitrogen as we go into the end of April. The weather has been somewhat unusually cool but precipitation has been limited and this has led too much progress being done on the nitrogen. At the same time there is some corn planted in Ontario in the deep south west. However, this is very limited in scope and done on some of the very lighter soils. As we reached the end of April with good weather corn planting will be widespread across the province.
Basis levels for grains have been maintained or eroded slightly from the last Market Trends report. There is still lots of old crop corn around in Ontario, but it is being actively shipped out of the province into export markets in the United Kingdom and Europe. The basis levels have been slightly affected by the increase in the Canadian dollar of approximately $0.03 over the last month. As always, this has a greater effect on the cash price of soybeans and wheat in Ontario.
The value of the Canadian dollar will likely remain the biggest fixture in Ontario grain basis for the immediate future. However, keep in mind that basis levels change in Ontario depending on the amount of crops sold as well as exports and domestic demand. Further to that, as we look out much further crop size in Ontario and crop health will affect basis levels as we go on through the year. Producers need to be vigilant of cash grain basis levels and their seasonal tendencies.
Old crop corn basis levels are $1.05 to $1.59 over the May 2025 corn futures on April 18th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.00 to $1.35 over Dec 2025 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.38 to $3.15 over the May 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.52 to $3.12 over the November 2025 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are in the $6.43 bu. range. For July 2025 new crop the bid is in the $6.68 bu. range. On April 4th the US replacement price for corn was $6.72/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at http://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/
The Bottom Line
Increasingly, it’s about the weather. I know that this is an old story, but it still matters always. At the present time we have a wet outlook in the eastern corn belt and a much drier outlook in the western corn belt. However, it is early and it’s really not affecting things too much with regard to prices. Even very dry and warm Kansas is not pushing wheat prices higher. Needless to say, let’s get to the end of May and weather forecasts will likely become even more telling for future price direction. This must always be in the back of producers minds.
Keep in mind that weather is very important but also this is 2025 and we have the biggest trade war ongoing in our memory. We do not know the next move in the trade war, but we can easily surmise that American farmers will be protected like they were the last time around in the first Trump administration. It’s likely there will be government cheques written to the farmers which will be positive for US grain production and negative to price. In Ontario and Quebec that will be bearish news for grain prices.
It might be April in Ontario but keep in mind that we are harvesting soybeans in Argentina and Brazil. The Argentinian soybean harvest is approximately 5% complete as of April the 14th. This typically accelerates pretty quickly in April and ends in early May. This Argentinian crop has been rated 81% good to excellent so we’ll need to keep abreast of harvest results in the next few weeks. It was hot and dry earlier and this may manifest itself in a little bit of a deterioration in this crop.
We should not ignore the corn rally that had taken place recently. Looking back at harvest time market sentiment was pretty poor and envisioning $6 corn in our future was so far away. However, the reality was we did see quite a price appreciation after harvest and in some ways that continues as corn demand is extremely strong and basis values have been rising in the United States. In Argentina the corn harvest is continuing with 28% of it being harvested as of April the 16th. USDA has placed its estimate at 49 MMT with some Argentinian agencies slightly lower.
Commodity Specific Comments
Corn
On March 28th corn futures were $4.42 a bushel but on April the 11th about 11 trading days later it reached a high of $4.90 a bushel. In terms of a rally this was extremely impressive and there were lots of farmers selling’s $5.00 cash corn for July in many locations in the United states. The question is can we get to $5 futures in December corn?
Well, the USDA said on March 31st Americans will plant 95.3 million acres of corn. However, if you mix some bad weather into this will we get there? Anything less than that will certainly create the possibility for price movement into the $5 area for December 2025 corn. Simply put, we are at the start of the growing season and there’s lots of risk ahead and with that lots of possibility of price volatility.
The May 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 6.75 cents below the July 2025 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The May 2025 corn futures contract is at the 35th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.
Soybeans
Keep in mind the USDA predicted 83.5 million acres of soybeans for this crop year. That is 4% less than last year and with that there should be greater risk of lower soybean supplies especially if we have hot and dry weather come to us in August. However, we are so far away from that now. Both corn and soybean futures have had a tailwind pushing them lately. It’s hard to say whether that will keep up or not.
We all know that tariffs have been tough on soybean prices however when China announced tariffs on American soybeans, we did see a rise of approximately $0.75 in soybean futures. It’s hard to substantiate that with any type of common-sense intuitive credibility. However, we know that markets hate uncertainty and maybe that’s why it happened in that way. Needless to say, even though much will depend on our growing season with regard to soybean prices, the bad geopolitics against soybeans remain. We will move ahead both looking at growing conditions and any other geopolitical moves by the United States, China and Brazil.
The May 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 9.75 cents below the July 2025 contract considered neutral to bullish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The May 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 23rd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.
Wheat
It is dry in American wheat country. Kansas is very dry and it has been almost hot in some places. You would think at some point it would have an effect on wheat prices. However, so far the market has yawned with wheat not going up in a similar fashion as corn and soybeans. As per usual, any particular concern with the wheat prices are always undercut by wheat prices in the Black Sea area. Russian and Ukrainian wheat is at a discount to everybody else and this will be a continuing challenge.
Ontario wheat prices continue to reflect the futures values which are at a low ebb. The Canadian dollar gaining 3 cents over the past month has also been a challenge for Ontario wheat prices. Wheat can always be a difficult crop to price especially with its production challenges. However, if a rally comes soon, it may be the chance for market orders to hit. As it is, the Ontario wheat crop looks pretty good as of April the 18th.
The Bottom Line (cont.)
In Canada we have a federal election going on which will take place on April the 28th. It might seem a long time ago now but there has been much criticism and aggression from the new American administration which was very negative for the Canadian dollar starting in January when it dipped under $0.70 US. Recently, during the federal election campaign the criticism has grown more muted, and this has resulted partly in the Canadian dollar gaining about 3 cents against the US dollar. However, much of that gain had more to do with American dollar weakness fueled by the erratic tariff trade action from the United States.
It’s still very unclear how this is all going to work out especially with Canada where we face 25% tariffs on our aluminum and steel as well as automobiles, and 10% on potash and oil. Earlier on April the 2nd the US president announced new tariffs for almost every country in the world. Equity markets reacted very negatively and there was some pullback from the American administration for another 90 days. However, in a very unusual circumstance the US bond market saw selling in US treasuries, a characteristic of a lack of confidence in the US economy. This unusual situation might have led to the 90-day reprieve.
It is also hard to say because nobody can predict the direction of the US President. However, the US dollar did reach a three-year low which is usually always good for agricultural futures prices. This surely may have affected things in the recent corn and soybean rally. Unfortunately, wheat did not catch fire on that bit of good news, but of course wheat is wheat. As we move ahead it will be very important for Ontario farmers to keep abreast of the value of the US dollar because it affects our cash values at home as well as those futures values on the Chicago Board.
Keep in mind as we move ahead into May and June that seasonality becomes even more important. Typically, in these months we do see price appreciation and generally speaking we see good marketing opportunities for both old crop and new crop grain. It’s important in that regard to have some market orders set at prices that you deem reasonable and profitable. The market will be very fluid going through the next 8 weeks and daily market intelligence will remain key to keeping your marketing plan dynamic. At the end of the day, there will be many market opportunities ahead.
