Skip to content

Market Trends Report – June & July 2025

US and the World

     It’s not the home stretch but we’re getting closer. The end of June going into July is always a critical period for crop development.  It can also be a gyrating time for grain markets as there is so much risk ahead in the growing season. As of June 9th, 97% of US corn has been planted which is 3 points ahead of the pace last year. At the same time 90% of the US soybeans have been planted which is 4 points ahead of where we were a year ago. So, we are off to the races, and we will see what happens.  The USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report on June the 12th.

   The June USDA report is often uneventful being ahead of the much bigger numbers that come in at the end of this month. This June report was no different.  USDA lowered old crop ending stocks by 50 million bushels which reshuffled the corn balance sheet.  This set corn old crop stocks at 1.365 billion bushels a new crop corn ending stocks to 1.75 billion bushels.  The new crop forecast of 15.82 billion bushels based on the yield forecast of 181 bushels per acre remains the same.  The Brazilian and Argentinian corn crop remained the same at 130 MMTs and 50 MMTs respectively.

     USDA had soybean production the same as a month ago coming in at 4.34 billion bushels on a planted acreage estimate of 83.5 million acres. This is based on the US national yield of 52.5 bushels per acre. The Brazilian and Argentina and soybean crop was left unchanged at 175 MMTs and 48.5 MMTs respectively.  88% of US winter wheat was headed out by June the 9th.

                 On June 13th corn, soybean and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report.  July 2025 corn futures was at $4.44 a bushel.  Dec 2025 corn were at $4.43 bu.  The July 2025 soybean futures stood at $10.69/bu.  The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.54 bu. The July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.43 a bushel. The Minneapolis July 2025 wheat futures closed at $6.34 a bushel with the September 2025 contract closing at $6.45 a bushel.

     The nearby oil futures as of June 13th closed at $72.98/barrel up vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.49/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $1.98/gallon, lower than the $2.00/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

     The Canadian dollar noon rate on June 13th, 2025, was .7354 US, up vs the .7154 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canadas lending rate remained at 2.75%.

Ontario

In Ontario things are going well depending on where you are situated. As of June 13th, pretty well all Ontario corn has been planted with early planted corn in southwestern Ontario in the V5-V6 stage.  Weather conditions in eastern Ontario have caused some uneven stands in some areas.  Soybean planting is almost done on the lighter Ontario soils, but it continues on heavier soils with much replanting in southwestern Ontario.

Two weather events with very heavy rain caused much replanting in South Lambton County and other parts of the clay belt in southwestern Ontario.  May was a difficult month for planting in these areas, cold and wet and farmers will be hoping the weather from now on will be kind. Wheat continues to advance with T3 fungicide application taking place across the province.

Despite the Canadian dollar gaining up two cents over the last 30 days the corn basis in Ontario increased slightly. This might be based on bigger exports to the EU with corn being shipped out. Old crop stocks in Ontario are getting tighter but of course this is all relative to future demand over the next few months until another harvest time. At the same time the increase in the Canadian dollar has caused a weakening in the soybean basis.  As always, the value of the Canadian dollar is the elixir on cash prices for soybeans and wheat in Ontario.

    Old crop corn basis levels are $1.30 to $1.87 over the July 2025 corn futures on June 13th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.00 to $1.49 over Dec 2025 futures.   The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.60 to $3.00 over the July 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.63 to $2.76 over the November 2025 futures.   Ontario SRW wheat prices are in the $6.32 bu. range.  For July 2025 new crop the bid is in the $6.28 bu. range.     On June 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.45/bushel.  You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at http://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

 The Bottom Line

Here we are, it’s that time of year when the rubber hits the road. mid-June to mid-July is often the time when the market decides that the crop is made.  We have the USDA report at the end of this month which will renew the acres we’ve been working with over the last several weeks. Any surprise in that report could cause market gyrations.  Also too, crop weather during this time often defines everything.

The United States and China are talking. Of course, they have a full-blown trade war going on between them with high tariff walls, soybeans being significant with regard to grain prices. Keep in mind in the first Trump administration there was a deal between China and the United States, but it took some time, and the market has been muted during the current talks.  However, with the increase in the renewable diesel RINs requirement on Friday from the EPA, the market turned around.  This will be a long-term benefit to American agriculture. It has the capability of redefining how much corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton will be grown and distributed throughout the United States.

If this news had come earlier, there is a real possibility the market would have tried to buy soybean acres back the spring. However, it was the opposite as soybeans giving it up to corn acres or at least that’s what we’ve been led to believe.  How will this manifest itself on June 30th when the USDA releases their acreage estimates? Of course, it’s hard to know but keep that 95.3 million acres in mind. Any big variation will lead to a pop either way.

Clearly, it’s also that time of the year when weather means everything. What its saying now is that the crop is made which is so unusual for mid-June, which usually represents a pretty good time to price new crop grain. So, if the market is right, here we are, but if it is wrong, we should see a run up on the other side. In any case, be aware of how this could change things

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

     The trendline yield from USDA for this year is 181 bushels per acre corn giving us a 1.75-billion-bushel corn ending stocks projection.  Keep in mind, that in the last six years we have not made trendline yields so it makes you wonder what is going to happen this year. As always, the weather in the next month will be key to the corn price equation.

     At the moment, everything is projected to be good. We got off to a great start and right now the crop really looks good but there is drier weather forecast for July. It’s all a theory now, and the funds are trading for the good crop. However, if things change toward the end of the month and hot and dry takes over, they will flip very quickly. 

    The July 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 16 cents higher than the September 2025 contract a bearish indication of new crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2025 corn futures contract is at the 25th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

     Soybean market got some good news Friday morning. The government announced new EPA renewable fuel volume obligations of 7.12 billion Rins in 2026 and 7.5 billion in 2027.  This was much higher than expected from industry recommendations earlier this year.  Soybean oil traded limit up on the move.

     This is incredibly important for soybean demand as it will increase soybean crush significantly. Also too, it helps restrict the import of used cooking oil which had been used to produce soybean diesel. In effect, it’s a big play on US value added agriculture that will help soybean demand almost immediately.

       The July 2025 soybean contract is currently priced .5 cents above the August 2025 contract considered neutral for soybean demand.  Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The July 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 23rd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

     Wheat is the whipping boy of agricultural prices with SRW Ontario cash values in the $6.25 range as of June the 13th. Interestingly enough, American wheat is now some of the cheapest in the world and this has boosted American exports. The Russian crop is about the same as last year, not quite as good helping keeping the status quo on wheat price. Keep in mind the geopolitical concerns happening now with Iran and Israel as well as Ukraine and Russia will always serve as a powder keg for wheat prices going forward.

     Ontario wheat continues to March toward the finish line generally speaking, the crop looks good but of course you never know with wheat. It is the only crop we as farmers we expose to four different seasons and quality is a big issue. At the present time there are issues with stripe in the wheat and producers will continue to watch this as we head into harvest.  The Canadian dollar gaining 2 cents over the last 30 days also hurt cash prices in Ontario. There is no question then Ontario wheat farmers will be looking for fresh news in the wheat market going into July.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

The Canadian dollar has been on a winning streak of late. With its current value of .7354 US, we are a solid 4 cents above where it dropped to on February 8th after the announcement of tariffs.  This has had a mitigating effect on Ontario cash prices and if it continues there will be more of the same. The gain in value has been partly a reflection on the stability Canada got back after the federal election.  It will likely get even more so if there is some type of trade and security agreement with the United States.  Needless to say, the value of the Canadian dollar will continue to have a big effect on the value of Ontario cash prices especially for wheat and soybeans.

As farmers we’re always trying to balance all of these scenarios.  The bearish scenario looking out is if we do hit trendline yields and we have benign weather thru July and August we could easily be looking at increase in corn ending stocks above 2 billion bushels. Soybean stocks could easily go above 400 million bushels. This would put corn and soybean prices at the lows that they were last August sub $4.00 and sub $9.  Nobody wants to go there, but it’s something we should keep in mind.

This may or may not happen because there is a certain order of things in the grain market related to supply and demand. We know that supply has been winning the last few years. However, keep in mind that the geopolitical dynamics of the last few months are starting to come unhinged. The war between Iran and Israel has the potential to get much wider. The war in Russia in Ukraine remains. We cannot predict how these conflicts might affect grain movement in the near future if things go awry.

The challenge for all Ontario farmers is to balance all of these many marketing factors as we look toward the end of the month when the USDA weighs in again with the numbers regarding how much corn and soybeans are out there. This is a very important time to have standing market orders ready.  Daily market intelligence will always remain key. As we move ahead, there will be many marketing opportunities ahead.