Market Trends Report – March & April 2025
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US and the World
It is that time of year again. Spring always represents a time of hope for North American farmers as we get ready to go to the fields to plant another crop. There certainly will be much anticipation this year as we have markets rife with uncertainty. As the calendar turns over into April planters will surely start to roll especially in the more southern portions of the greater North American corn belt.
On March 11th USDA came out with their latest WASDE report. Generally speaking, the mid-March report is usually uneventful being sandwiched between the January and February report and the later March 31st Prospective Plantings report which seemingly is always more significant. This year was no different as USDA made no changes to the domestic corn and soybean balance sheet as well as leaving production in Brazil and Argentina constant.
For the record, the domestic numbers for corn in the United States are still at 14.867 billion bushels with the US national yield at 179.3 bushels per acre on harvested acres of 82.9 million acres. Total domestic corn use in the United States is set at 12.665 billion bushels, with feed and residual use at 5.775 billion bushels and ethanol use forecast to be 5.5 billion bushels. Brazil’s corn production was maintained at 126 MMT with Argentina sitting at 50 MMT.
Again, for the record US soybean production was maintained at 4.37 billion bushels. Soybean ending stocks were capped at 380 million bushels with no revisions to the supply and demand tables. Brazil soybean production was maintained at 169 MMT with Argentina sitting at 49 MMT. There was a 3 MMT cut in global soybean stocks.
On March 14th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were lower than the last Market Trends report. May 2025 corn futures were at $4.58 a bushel. Dec 2025 corn were at $4.51 bu. The May 2025 soybean futures stood at $10.16/bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.18 bu. The March 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.57 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2025 wheat futures closed at $6.01 a bushel with the September 2025 contract closing at $6.29 a bushel.
The nearby oil futures as of March 14th closed at $67.18/barrel down vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $70.74/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.00/barrel, down versus the $2.04 a US gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.
The Canadian dollar noon rate on March 14th, 2024, was .6950 US, down vs the .7059 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate was reduced to 2.75%.
Ontario
In Ontario it looks like winter is finally in the rear-view mirror. Generally speaking, this past winter was more of a classic Canadian winter with lots of snow and cold weather especially in the snow belt areas. With the warmer temperatures the melting of all this snow has led to the emergence of what might be left of the winter wheat crop planted last fall. Thankfully, at least at this point the winter wheat crop looks like it has survived well.
There has even been some field activity on some of the lighter soils in the deep southwest of Ontario. This is all taking place at a time when the news is full of the trade war which has emerged since the election of the US President. It will certainly make things challenging with regard to the export flow of Ontario grains and the purchasing of farm inputs in 2025. Ontario basis levels for both corn and soybeans has been maintained mostly from the last Market Trends report. However, there has been a slight erosion based on lower futures prices.
At the present time we are exporting corn and soybeans into Europe from Quebec, and this will surely ramp up in Ontario very soon. At the same time the EU announced tariffs against American soybeans going into Europe. This has the potential to help Ontario beans landing into Europe. Ontario corn already has preferential treatment because of the CETA agreement. Keep in mind though that the Chinese have also put on tariffs against American soybeans. Essentially, this means that American soybeans could slide into traditional Ontario markets in Southeast Asia where tariffs do not apply. It is a complicated world.
Old crop corn basis levels are $1.00 to $1.45 over the May 2025 corn futures on March 14th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.33 over Dec 2025 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.94 to $3.05 over the May 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.85 to $3.25 over the November 2025 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are in the $6.65 bu. range. For July 2025 new crop the bid is in the $7.01 bu. range. On March 14th the US replacement price for corn was $6.64/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at http://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/
The Bottom Line
It’s all about tariffs. As usual agricultural markets do not like uncertainty and with the election of the new American President what we got was uncertainty because of his preference for tariffs to change the American economy. The Canadian government has a long list of counter tariffs ($125 billion) which may be put on which include corn and soybeans, beef and pork, cattle, fertilizer and ethanol. Previously the Canadian government announced an initial $30 billion list which took place March the 4th. There are additional tariffs of 25% on selected American products in response to American tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum on March 13th.
Sorting through this is a bit of a gong show especially when it seems to be changing on the whims of the American President. However, it is our new reality, and it will have big effects on the Canadian economy and Ontario farmers. In short, there likely will be negative economic growth initially plus higher unemployment, higher prices and less choice.
The situation is not clear, and it is causing much geopolitical tumult as we head into April. Putting Canadian counter tariffs on American grain moving into Ontario will likely put a stop to that. However, in recent times that has been rare, but depending on the size of the crop in 2025 it might mean big things for prices going ahead. In other words, if we have a poor crop in 2025, Ontario basis levels will likely go higher. If everything is normal, there’s unlikely to be any changes in Ontario price discovery as we will have lots of grain needing to be exported.
At about the same time the Americans put on steel and aluminum tariffs on the European Union which responded with a long list of counter tariffs, one being American soybeans. As stated earlier, this might create opportunity for eastern Canadian soybeans into Europe. However, it likely means for strange grain movement across the globe in ways that you could not imagine earlier.
Commodity Specific Comments
Corn
Tariffs and rumors of tariffs have certainly been difficult for the corn market which has surged this year up until about February 20th when the talk of US tariffs started the corn market to go down. A 75 Cent drop in the price of corn is nothing to sneeze at. There has been a small recovery of $0.25 within the last week. Clearly though, one market opportunity has passed, hopefully another one will come along.
We will see what will happen on March 31st when the USDA releases their Prospective Planting report. Earlier the USDA had said that the US farmers would be planting 94 million corn acres this year, that’s up about 4 million acres from last year. Private estimates have been a lot higher in fact even close to 97 million acres as December 2025 corn futures were buying acres into February. As of now, the market is saying it has enough corn. However, we all know corn markets are fluid and change is a constant.
The May 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 8.75 cents below the July 2025 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The May 2025 corn futures contract is at the 29th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.
Soybeans
Soybeans do not necessarily corner all the bad news with regard to tariffs and oversupply. The old crop has been holding at $10 which is significant and somewhat surprising to many traders. However, with the Chinese being the big buyer and having applied tariffs on US soybeans it just makes it all very difficult. There’s lots of downside potential on the beans.
It’s almost been a default that soybeans are going to lose the acreage war with corn in the United States and we’ll get an update on that in the March 31st USDA report. For instance, if we go much lower than 3 million acres less than last year, we might see some fireworks. However, there is a 380 million bushel carry out on American soybeans stocks which is significant. However, as always those carry out stocks can be cut down or built up depending on crop weather this year.
The May 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 14 cents below the July 2025 contract considered bearish for soybeans. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The May 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 20th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.
Wheat
It’s that time of year again when weather might be a consideration with regard to the wheat market. Dry weather in US wheat country is a bullish factor for wheat prices, but funds are short wheat. USDA had actually increased the US wheat ending stocks from 794 million bushels in February coming in at 819 million bushels. This is negative for wheat prices, but they seemed to shrug that news off especially with dry weather concerns in the United States.
In Ontario, it might be too early to say but the SRW wheat looks good in the southwest of the province. Wheat prices have rebounded lately and as always are helped by the much lower Canadian dollar. Ontario farmers will have to weigh whether $7.00 wheat prices for July will still be there when the weather gets warm.
The Bottom Line (cont.)
The Canadian dollar has been rattled over the last month from the ongoing trade war between the United States and Canada. Generally speaking, the value of the Canadian dollar is usually an inverse to the US dollar. However, over the last several weeks this has been broken as the increased realization of a global trade war has rocked the value of the American dollar. This has happened partly because the current tariff war has been negative for the US economy as reflected in the equity markets. It has sent the US dollar down with no corresponding increase in the Canadian dollar over the last three weeks. However, tariffs against Canada as well as annexation rhetoric from the American President has been negative for the Canadian dollar.
In many ways, this is a saving grace for Ontario grain prices. A low Canadian dollar is always a stimulus for Ontario cash prices. Unfortunately, our current North American geopolitics are very negative for the Canadian economy. With the punitive trade action from the United States, we can expect lower or negative economic growth, higher unemployment, higher prices and fewer choices.
Aside from all of this negative economic news, as farmers we need to focus on some grain fundamentals on the short-term horizon. The March 31st, 2025, Prospective Plantings report from the USDA always serves as a big benchmark for the year. This year will be no different except with the trade war as a backdrop we need to look for surprises going forward. Of course, fickle crop weather this spring can always upset the apple cart. As grain producers we need to go forward with our eyes wide open and watch all of the grain market fundamentals.
The road ahead for Ontario grain farmers will likely grow more difficult in the last couple of months. Trade wars with Canada in the crosshairs is something uncommon. It makes it even more of a challenge to capture grain marketing opportunities when they emerge. The key as always is daily market intelligence. It’s not so easy these days but listening and learning every day is important. Amid the turbulence, we will overcome. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead.
