Grain Market Commentary for December 6, 2017

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT March 3.52  01 cents
Soybeans CBOT January 10.03  10 cents
Wheat CBOT March 4.25  10 cents
Wheat Minn. March 6.14  09 cents
Wheat Kansas March 4.23  06 cents
Chicago Oats March 2.48  15 cents
Canadian $ December 0.7835  0.50 points

Corn

We have pretty much ended the week where we left off last week. Markets are still searching for the ever elusive bottom; and with the holidays fast approaching, and the last trading day for the December contract, I am asking Santa for a market reversal. I wonder if I was a good boy or if maybe we will find a lump of coal in that stocking.

There is nothing much to report except that we are still finding good support at these levels at $3.35. The question is whether we close below the $3.50 mark on the March contract, and see a sharp selloff, or maybe just take out the stops and give us a reversal candle.

Initial support is still seen at the $3.30 level on the December contract, while overhead resistance is seen at $3.60.

Short term indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.

Soybeans

Although today, December 6 ended up with a minor loss, I am quite pleased at the chart formation and the indicators. On the week, we gained 10 cents a bushel on the January contract; but more important is the technical as we have broken the four-year-old down trend line and have two red buy signals. All we need now is an excuse to start moving higher.

A close above $10.25 on the January contract could set us up for some good upside over the next couple of months. Until we get a clear indication, we have to remain neutral.

Short term indicators are neutral with a bullish bias, and the weekly indicators favour a bullish tone into the new year. However, the primary trend is still down.

Wheat

Wheat once again tested the $4.20 support line on the March contract but the expiring December contract seems to be under pressure. This could cause some heavy selling pressure on that contract and the March may follow suit.

Good support is seen at $4.20 on the March futures chart, and as long as we don’t close below there, we could still escape the selloff if the December expiring contract drops hard in its last days. Overhead resistance is still viewed at $4.50.

Indicators are showing oversold conditions. Short term indicators are still negative and the primary trend is still down.

Cash Grain prices as of the close, December 6, are as follows: SWW @ $178.23/MT ($4.85/bu), HRW @ $187.61/MT ($5.11/bu), HRS @ $238.74/MT ($6.50/bu), SRW @ $182.92/MT ($4.98/bu).

Grain Market Commentary for November 29, 2017

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT March 3.45  05 cents
Soybeans CBOT January 9.92  05 cents
Wheat CBOT March 4.35  17 cents
Wheat Minn. March 6.23  18 cents
Wheat Kansas March 4.31  06 cents
Chicago Oats March 2.63  04 cents
Canadian $ December 0.7785  0.80 points

Corn

We have switched our contract months for corn, oats, and wheat to March, as today is the first notice day for the December contracts. There is nothing much to report except that we did challenge the September 15 lows at $3.35 this week, and again found support on the March contract. The next obvious level of support is seen on both the March contract and weekly charts at the $3.30 level. Below there, the next support level is at the $3 level, should it be tested.

Initial support is still seen at the $3.30 level on the December contract, while overhead resistance is seen at $3.60.

Short term indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.

Soybeans

The January soybeans contract closed positive again this week, and it looks like it is comfortable in the $10 level, while sitting on the trend line from 2015. A close above $10.25 on the January contract could set us up for some good upside over the next couple of months. The formation on the charts is suggesting a trend reversal in the coming weeks. Until we get a clear indication, we remain neutral; however, we did get the red buy signal on the weekly chart back in October, but we have yet to get any decisive upside movement.

Short term indicators are neutral, and the weekly indicators favour a bullish tone into the new year. However, the primary trend is still down.

Wheat

Wheat once again tested the $4.20 support line on the March contract and held nicely. The December contract which becomes a non evident for trading today, tested the much more important weekly trend line and it also held. At this point in the season we look for subtle hints that the worst is behind us in price and so far we see this to be in-line with our hopes. Once the December futures have been abandoned by the traders, we have only the real participants left in the market and we should start to see some premium flow into the March contract with anticipation of higher prices in the spring. Meanwhile this is definitely still very much a bear market as it has been for the past four plus years.

Solid support is seen at $4.20 on the March futures chart, while initial overhead resistance is viewed at $4.50.

Indicators are showing oversold conditions. Short term indicators are still negative and the primary trend is still down.

Cash Grain prices as of the close, November 29 , are as follows: SWW @ $183.98/MT ($5.01/bu), HRW @ $193.42/MT ($5.26/bu), HRS @ $244.52/MT ($6.65/bu), SRW @ $188.70/MT ($5.14/bu).