Marty Hibbs is a grain merchandiser with Grain Farmers of Ontario. Hibbs is a 25 year veteran futures trader, analyst, and portfolio manager. He was a regular guest analyst on BNN for four years and is currently authoring the Market Side education series on futures trading basics in the Ontario Grain Farmer magazine.
Grain Market Commentary for June 13, 2018
| Commodity | Period | Price | Weekly Movement |
| Corn CBOT | July | 3.76 | ↓ 02 cents |
| Soybeans CBOT | July | 9.36 | ↓ 58 cents |
| Wheat CBOT | July | 5.17 | ↓ 03 cents |
| Wheat Minn. | July | 5.84 | ↓ 13 cents |
| Wheat Kansas | July | 5.40 | ↓ 01 cents |
| Chicago Oats | July | 2.32 | ↓ 08 cents |
| Canadian $ | June | .7680 | ↓ 0.41 points |
Corn
The correction continued this week as we reached our downside target of $3.65 as suggested in last week’s commentary. The corn chart still looks weak and even if we bounce from these levels, there is a very good chance we will revisit them again in the coming weeks. This action has now given us a new overhead resistance for the short term. The $3.90 level on the July contract is the new resistance level and my guess is that we will move higher to that level before we re-test the recent lows of the $3.55 – $3.65 zone.
Our short term indicator is still bearish while our intermediate remains slightly bullish. All of this really doesn’t matter as long as the long term trend is still negative.
A definitive close above $4.50 will confirm the primary trend moving from neutral to bullish mode.
Current overhead resistance is still seen at the $3.90 – $4 level on July, while support is seen at the $3.55 – $3.65 level.
Soybeans
Soybeans were under attack and we did indeed dropped back to the $9.40 level as the July futures are testing the support level and an intermediate trend line. The charts are proving to be negative in the near term as we received a short term red sell signal on the re-test of the $9.40 trend line. This does not look promising as we may now see more selling which could move us back towards the 2017 lows near $9 and possibly even the long anticipated $8.50 lows of 2016.
Short term indicators are negative, while the intermediate trend, as indicated on the weekly chart, is neutral to bullish. The primary trend needs to see a close above the $10.80 level on the lead month futures contract to reverse the six-year-old bear market in soybeans. Until we have a convincing close above that level, the primary trend remains down.
Wheat
Our May 30 commentary suggested that the $5.55 area would result in stiff resistance and that we would pull back to the $4.80 – $5 level before another attempt at the $5.55 level.
We closed June 13 at $5.17 and it looks like we may see the $4.80 – $5. support level tested before we make another attempt at the $5.55.
Solid support is seen at $4.80 on the July contract and our resistance is the May 29 high at the $5.55 level. Once we clear that hurdle, we are set to challenge our $5.75 target.
Short term indicators are neutral while the primary trend is mildly bullish.
Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, June 13, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $242.48/MT ($6.60/bu), HRW @ $244.87/MT ($6.66/bu),
HRS @ $232.91/MT ($6.34/bu), SRW @ $241.42/MT ($6.57/bu).
