Marty Hibbs is a grain merchandiser with Grain Farmers of Ontario. Hibbs is a 25 year veteran futures trader, analyst, and portfolio manager. He was a regular guest analyst on BNN for four years and is currently authoring the Market Side education series on futures trading basics in the Ontario Grain Farmer magazine.
Grain Market Commentary for January 5, 2017
January 5, 2017
| Commodity | Period | Price | Weekly Movement |
| Corn CBOT | March | 3.60 | 12 cents |
| Soybeans CBOT | March | 10.16 | 01 cents |
| Wheat CBOT | March | 4.18 | 12 cents |
| Wheat Minn. | March | 5.44 | 13 cents |
| Wheat Kansas | March | 4.26 | 17 cents |
| Chicago Oats | March | 2.39 | 11 cents |
| Canadian $ | March | 0.7515 | 1.28 points |
Corn
Another short week and typical holiday style move as most participants were away for the Christmas season. The corn crept back up to the resistance levels of $3.60 – $3.65 on the March contract. As with Labour Day weekend, most U.S. holidays can create market reversals when you look in the rear view mirror. This holiday produced a red buy signal on our daily chart. This is only an indication that there could be higher prices in the coming weeks as it is only a daily chart and not the weekly or monthly chart. Corn now looks ready to try and close above our resistance levels, and if they can do so, we could see a nice 15 to 20 cent rally from these levels. Meanwhile, our overhead resistance remains at the $3.65 level, based on the close of the March contract. Support is seen at $3.35 with our major support level back at $3.
Although indicators are mixed, the main trend is still down.
Soybeans
Soybeans rallied over the holidays from the $10 support level, but unlike corn, the charts are not as bullish. Overhead resistance sits at the $10.30 – $10.60 level based on the March contract, while the main trend line resistance is around $11.
All indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.
Wheat
The March CBOT wheat contract had a productive week as the daily charts flirted with our $4.20 resistance levels. We are currently still at that price, but we need a close above the $4.25 level on the March contract before we get too excited. Short term indicators have turned neutral to positive but we have a lot of work to do before we get this market to turn bullish. The $4 support level has proven itself and we should see a move higher into the spring.
Meanwhile, HRS wheat has been the strong performer and we have an inverted head and shoulders formation which suggests another 30 to 40 cents higher in the coming months or sooner. Meanwhile, initial support is seen at the $4 level on March and resistance is at $4.25 – $4.30. Short term indicators are neutral to positive but the intermediate and primary trends are still down.
Harvest 2017 crop cash prices as of close on January 5, 2017
SWW @ $172.40 ($4.69/bu), HRW @ $169.91/MT ($4.62/bu),
HRS @ $216.93/MT ($5.90/bu), SRW @ $174.89/MT ($4.76/bu).
