Marty Hibbs is a grain merchandiser with Grain Farmers of Ontario. Hibbs is a 25 year veteran futures trader, analyst, and portfolio manager. He was a regular guest analyst on BNN for four years and is currently authoring the Market Side education series on futures trading basics in the Ontario Grain Farmer magazine.
Grain Market Commentary for January 25, 2017
January 25, 2017
| Commodity | Period | Price | Weekly Movement |
| Corn CBOT | March | 3.66 | 01 cents |
| Soybeans CBOT | March | 10.55 | 20 cents |
| Wheat CBOT | March | 4.24 | 07 cents |
| Wheat Minn. | March | 5.72 | 12 cents |
| Wheat Kansas | March | 4.37 | 19 cents |
| Chicago Oats | March | 2.60 | 03 cents |
| Canadian $ | March | 0.7650 | 0.90 points |
Corn
This week corn struggled with clearing the 50% retracement levels from the July 2016 tops to the Labour Day weekend lows. This is a very important resistance level on our charts. The 50% move up coincides with our resistance of $3.70 that has been in our target zone for some time. If we can convincingly close above this $3.70 level, our next upside target is the $3.80 – $3.85 resistance. For the time being, however, our overhead resistance remains at $3.70 while support is seen at $3.40.
Short term and weekly indicators are still positive, but the main trend is still down.
Soybeans
After reaching our resistance of $10.70 we are now retracing on the soybeans. From these levels we are getting the expected pullback and we anticipate support at the $10.25 – $10.45 range. Eventually, the extension of last week’s move should put our next upside target around $11 or just above there. Initial support is still at the $10.25 level on March, and once we close convincingly above $10.75, our next target is the $11 – $11.20 area.
Short and intermediate term indicators are still positive but the main trend is still down.
Wheat
Wheat continues to impress, as our charts are showing good support around $4 – $4.20 and the intraday chart shows us a pattern that suggests we will see the next upside shot take us to, or close to, the $4.50 top made back in October. This is an important level on the March CBOT chart as it completes an inverted head and shoulders formation. I would expect a pullback from that level, but if we manage to clear the highs convincingly we could be heading towards a more significant resistance level and a major target of $4.60. Our red buy signal from three weeks ago is still intact.
CBOT March wheat initial support is still seen at the $4.20 level and again at $4, while overhead resistance is at the $4.40 – $4.45 level.
Both short and intermediate term indicators are still positive but the primary trend is still down.
Harvest 2017 crop cash prices as of close on January 25, 2017
SWW @ $184.72 ($5.03/bu), HRW @ $184.72/MT ($5.03/bu),
HRS @ $219.79/MT ($5.98/bu), SRW @ $184.72/MT ($5.03/bu).
