Marty Hibbs is a grain merchandiser with Grain Farmers of Ontario. Hibbs is a 25 year veteran futures trader, analyst, and portfolio manager. He was a regular guest analyst on BNN for four years and is currently authoring the Market Side education series on futures trading basics in the Ontario Grain Farmer magazine.
Grain Market Commentary for March 1, 2017
March 1, 2017
| Commodity | Period | Price | Weekly Movement |
| Corn CBOT | May | 3.82 | 04 cents |
| Soybeans CBOT | May | 10.52 | 19 cents |
| Wheat CBOT | May | 4.57 | 01 cents |
| Wheat Minn. | May | 5.61 | 09 cents |
| Wheat Kansas | May | 4.77 | 06 cents |
| Chicago Oats | May | 2.46 | 06 cents |
| Canadian $ | Mar | 0.7494 | 0.99 points |
Corn
Last week’s commentary suggested we would need a couple of weeks before we revisit our recent highs of February 16th. Although the May contract closed out the session on March 1st eight cents higher than the previous day, the chart formation still suggests another week or two before those levels challenged again. Corn found our $3.80 overhead resistance level too much for this rally but should still get to see another attempt in the coming weeks. Initial support is at the $3.60 level on May while overhead resistance is seen at $3.80 – $3.85.
Overall, the charts look positive in the long run but we have to expect pullbacks and it will take time to turn the trend positive. Our main downtrend line runs north of $4 on the lead month contract. Short term and weekly indicators are still positive, but the main trend is still down.
Soybeans
The trading range continues to narrow and soybeans are still range-bound between $10 – $11. We managed to stay above the $10 level on the close last week but pressure seems to be pushing hard on the $10 support line as we have received a short term sell signal. The March contract is now tied to cash and we have switched over to May. Short term indicators have turned negative this week, and the main trend is still down.
Wheat
Our reversal pattern worked as expected and we have completed a 50% pullback on the May wheat from the December 23 low and the more recent February 16 high. The pattern suggests more time before we challenge the February highs again, but unless we see prices close below the $4.40 based on the May contract, we could be ready for a challenge to the recent highs by mid-March. Looking ahead to next week, we see initial support on the May contract at the $4.40 level while overhead resistance is now at $4.65 also based on the May contract.
Both short and intermediate term indicators are still positive, but the primary trend is still down.
Harvest 2017 crop cash prices as of close on March 1, 2017
SWW @ $197.07 ($5.36/bu), HRW @ $197.07 ($5.36/bu),
HRS @ $221.09/MT ($6.02/bu), SRW @ $197.07 ($5.36/bu).
