Marty Hibbs is a grain merchandiser with Grain Farmers of Ontario. Hibbs is a 25 year veteran futures trader, analyst, and portfolio manager. He was a regular guest analyst on BNN for four years and is currently authoring the Market Side education series on futures trading basics in the Ontario Grain Farmer magazine.
Ontario Grain Marketing Commentary for June 27, 2019
| Commodity | Period | Price | Weekly Movement |
| Corn CBOT | July | 4.40 | ↑ 00 cents |
| Soybeans CBOT | July | 8.88 | ↓ 15 cents |
| Wheat CBOT | July | 5.47 | ↑ 05 cents |
| Wheat Minn. | Sep | 5.58 | ↑ 25 cents |
| Wheat Kansas | July | 4.68 | ↑ 10 cents |
| Oats CBOT | July | 2.80 | ↓ 05 cents |
| Canadian $ | Jun | 0.7440 | ↑ 1.15 points |
Corn
Corn broke through our target of $4.40, and an expected pulled back to the support of $4.40. Our weekly high was $4.64 on Chicago July futures. From this level, I expect consolidation and a pullback to lower prices for the short term. The key here is that the back of the bear is broken, but it does not mean we have to continue higher immediately. It is difficult to determine the amount of price reduction that we will see, but there is good support at the $4 level if it heads lower. The trend change is more in tune with the prices going forward, and this chart suggests that we are beginning a march toward higher prices that will last for years.
Initial support is seen at $4.25 and while major support is now at the $4 range on the July futures. The primary trend is now neutral to bullish. Once this current correction is complete, I expect a re-test of the recent highs of $4.64 on the July futures and later this summer a shot towards our next target of $5 per bushel.
Soybeans
Soybeans once again rallied to our overhead target zone of $9.25 and have failed to penetrate the trend line. This will eventually lead to a large correction if the futures are unable to clear this area. We are now approaching the first notice day on the July futures, which is likely to add downward pressure on prices for the next couple of weeks. Overhead resistance is at the $9.25 to $9.50 level on the front-month contract, while support is seen at the $8.50 level.
Indicators are still mixed, but the primary trend is still down.
Wheat
Wheat is still finding trouble at our overhead resistance of $5.50 on the July futures. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report issued on July 28 could cause some sparks. If we close through our $5.50 level, there is a good chance we will see $6 very quickly. If the report is bearish, expect a prolonged pullback towards the $5 mark on the July futures. We are entering the first notice day on the July futures, which could also impact prices to the upside. On the other side, we have the June 28 stocks report, a long weekend coming up in the U.S. and the July 11 USDA report. Bottom line is we should see some fireworks appropriate for the July 4 celebrations.
Indicators are positive with a primary trend neutral to bullish.
The solid support is now at $4.80 on the July futures.
Harvest 2019 prices as of the close,June 27, 2019 are as follows:
SWW @ $272.68/MT ($7.42/bu), HRW @ $282.28/MT ($7.68/bu),
HRS @ $250.58/MT ($6.82/bu), SRW @ $267.88/MT ($7.29/bu).
