Marty Hibbs is a grain merchandiser with Grain Farmers of Ontario. Hibbs is a 25 year veteran futures trader, analyst, and portfolio manager. He was a regular guest analyst on BNN for four years and is currently authoring the Market Side education series on futures trading basics in the Ontario Grain Farmer magazine.
Grain Market Commentary for September 20, 2017
| Commodity | Period | Price | Weekly Movement |
| Corn CBOT | December | 3.50 | 01 cents |
| Soybeans CBOT | November | 9.70 | 11 cents |
| Wheat CBOT | December | 4.50 | 07 cents |
| Wheat Minn. | December | 6.22 | 12 cents |
| Wheat Kansas | December | 4.48 | 05 cents |
| Chicago Oats | December | 2.46 | 08 cents |
| Canadian $ | December | 0.8115 | 0.75 points |
Corn
The $3.45 support level that we have identified on the December futures contract has been tested three times in the past three weeks. This leads me to believe that the bottom may be in for the next few weeks. This, of course, is a temporary line in the sand as the weekly charts show a move lower is very possible; we are still under a red sell signal from the August 25 commentary. For this reason, we have conflicting charts showing a possible temporary low at $3.45 and possibly an upcoming bounce in the short term. Our first resistance level is at the $3.60 and again at the $3.70 level on the December contract.
Short term indicators have turned positive, but weekly and monthly indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.
Soybeans
Soybeans have a unique pattern that I am reluctant to call. For those of you that read my commentaries on a regular basis, you may recall me speaking many times about a possible move towards the $8.50 level if we negate the $9 level on the nearby futures. Looking at both the daily and weekly charts, I have a formation that could be either a positive, suggesting a possible short bottom, or an inverted head and shoulders position showing a decline target to the $8.50 area that we have spoken about so often. We will not be able to identify the formation unless we see a move above $10 on the nearby contract or a move below $9 on the same contract. I will refrain from guessing the price direction, but will say for certainty that the primary trend is down and that we could still rally towards the $10 price without changing the chart formation.
Sticking more to what we know, the short term indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.
Wheat
Wheat continues to find solid support this week. We have inched higher by 20 cents per bushel since our last commentary when we suggested we are more than due for at least a 40 cent bounce from these levels over the next few weeks.
Support still sits at $4 – $4.20 on the December chart, while overhead resistance is viewed at $4.60 – $4.80. The slow, steady movement in prices is a good sign; but we need to keep in mind that the primary trend is down and these rallies should be viewed as selling opportunities for most farmers.
All indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.
Harvest 2017 prices as of the close, September 20 are as follows:
SWW @ $190.53/MT ($5.19/bu), HRW @ $199.60/MT ($5.43/bu),
HRS @ $241.11/MT ($6.56/bu), SRW @ $195.06/MT ($5.31/bu).
