Ontario Grain Commentary for January 22, 2020

Corn

There were rumours of Chinese purchase of U.S. corn last week which gave the market a sizeable one-day gain. Since then the corn futures market has eased slightly.  Although the trade was anticipating between 450 – 800,000 tonnes, U.S. export inspections totalled approximately 386,000 tonnes. This estimate is down from the past week and substantially lower for the same time last year.   Export shipments were below the necessary pace required to reach the USDA export estimates for the 2019-2020 marketing year.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean exports tallied in at the upper end of trade estimates, at 1.2 million tonnes. The soy market has tempered this news with projections of a large South American soybean harvest.  The trade is watching to see if China buys U.S soybeans or if they continue to buy from South America.  The U.S. China Phase 1 trade deal indicates that China will buy U.S. farm goods based on ‘market conditions’, which has added to this uncertainty.

Wheat

Hard red wheat (HRW) has been a major share of all U.S. wheat exports, while soft red (SRW) wheat has held a much smaller share of exports. With the Black sea region expanding its exports, the global share of U.S. exports has been significantly reduced. This has lead to an increase in U.S. wheat inventory, even at times where planted acreage has been decreasing. HRW stocks have risen while SRW’s have dropped and are seen as having a tighter supply. 

The aforementioned factors have significantly impacted the Kansas City Wheat Futures where HRW is traded, trading at a discount to the Chicago wheat futures. Traditionally Kansas City has traded at a premium to Chicago.

2019 cash prices for January 22, 2020, at the market close, are as follows:

SWW at $293.56/mt ($7.99/bu), HRW at $300.81/mt ($8.19/bu),
HRS at $253.83/mt ($6.91/bu), and SRW at $288.73/mt ($7.86/bu).

We currently offer 2020 and 2021 harvest prices as well, please call 1-800-265-0550 for more information.