Marty Hibbs is a grain merchandiser with Grain Farmers of Ontario. Hibbs is a 25 year veteran futures trader, analyst, and portfolio manager. He was a regular guest analyst on BNN for four years and is currently authoring the Market Side education series on futures trading basics in the Ontario Grain Farmer magazine.
Grain Market Commentary for February 9, 2017
February 9, 2017
| Commodity | Period | Price | Weekly Movement |
| Corn CBOT | March | 3.69 | 01 cents |
| Soybeans CBOT | March | 10.50 | 13 cents |
| Wheat CBOT | March | 4.43 | 09 cents |
| Wheat Minn. | March | 5.68 | 13 cents |
| Wheat Kansas | March | 4.51 | 11 cents |
| Chicago Oats | March | 2.54 | 04 cents |
| Canadian $ | March | 0.7612 | 0.50 points |
Corn
This month’s United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report highlighted a 4 MMT increase in Chinese demand coupled with a 1.5 MMT increase in Mexican output.
As for the charts, we are still stuck at our $3.70 resistance, but if and when we manage to clear this resistance convincingly and close above here, we are cleared for our next task which is an attempt at the $3.80 – $4 corn. Our main downtrend line runs just north of $4 on the lead month contract. Short term and weekly indicators are still positive, but the main trend is still down.
Soybeans
Highlights of the USDA report showed Argentina’s soybean crop being cut 1.5 million metric tonnes but the cut was less than expected and the beans softened after the report. The trading range is getting smaller each passing week and soybeans are heading into a narrow vertex on the weekly chart, which should resolve itself before the end of May. Currently, the range is between $10 and $11. Initial support is still at the $10. level on March, and once we close convincingly above $10.75, our next target is the $11 – $11.20 area.
Short and intermediate term indicators are still positive but the main trend is still down.
Wheat
Wheat behaved as expected and had a nice rally after the USDA report. Our target of $4.40 was finally met and from this level we could expect another pullback to work on our inverted head and shoulders formation before heading high to our next target of $4.50 and a challenge to our intermediate trend line. According to the charts we may see this attempt in the coming weeks. The completion of our inverted pattern suggests we may see the lead month contract price as high as $4.80 which would not only complete the pattern, but challenge our intermediate downtrend. Our red buy signal from Christmas is still intact.
CBOT March wheat initial support is still seen at the $4.20 level while overhead resistance is still at the $4.40 – $4.45 level.
Both short and intermediate term indicators are still positive, but the primary trend is still down.
Harvest 2017 crop cash prices as of close on February 9, 2017
SWW @ $194.70 ($5.30/bu), HRW @ $194.70/MT ($5.30/bu),
HRS @ $224.61/MT ($6.11/bu), SRW @ $194.70/MT ($5.30/bu).
