Marty Hibbs is a grain merchandiser with Grain Farmers of Ontario. Hibbs is a 25 year veteran futures trader, analyst, and portfolio manager. He was a regular guest analyst on BNN for four years and is currently authoring the Market Side education series on futures trading basics in the Ontario Grain Farmer magazine.
Grain Market Commentary for July 19, 2017
| Commodity | Period | Price | Weekly Movement |
| Corn CBOT | September | 3.82 | 03 cents |
| Soybeans CBOT | November | 10.12 | 25 cents |
| Wheat CBOT | September | 5.03 | 32 cents |
| Wheat Minn. | September | 7.75 | 06 cents |
| Wheat Kansas | September | 5.00 | 44 cents |
| Chicago Oats | September | 2.93 | 11 cents |
| Canadian $ | September | 0.7950 | 1.00 points |
Corn
Needless to say, it was a volatile week for the corn. We tried to negate the first significant downtrend line at the $4 area on the September chart, only to be turned back by the flood of sell orders. We reversed and plunged 30 cents per bushel on the futures contract within a two day period. We will not give up that quickly, as I’m sure there will be another attempt on the trend-line. What I am not willing to say is whether or not we will be successful. If we were successful, our next challenge would be an attempt at the all-important $4.40 level on the lead month futures contract, which could tip the scales and turn this market northward going forward.
Initial support on the September futures is seen at $3.65 on the September futures, while overhead resistance is still at $4, also on the September contract.
Short term indicators are neutral and the primary trend is still down.
Soybeans
This week has been exactly as forecast: a retreat from the stiff resistance as indicated in our reports at the $10.50 level on the November new crop contract. This corrective phase should continue a while longer and we should find at least temporary support at the $9.60 level on November. I do expect another upside move over the coming weeks, but we will have to wait and see how the chart patterns develop. The charts have a friendlier tone since we received the red buy signal on July 3, and I expect a run at the $10.50 level again, and possibly even the $10.80 level if we manage to stay above the $9.50 level on our daily closing prices.
Like the other crops, this one could be very sensitive to weather issues over the next few weeks.
Short term indicators are still positive, but for now the primary trend is still down.
Wheat
It was another corrective week, as the September Minneapolis lost another 6 cents overall since our last report. Prices retreat under low volume, but it is obvious that this is a wait and see situation as the weather driven crops needs more fuel to further advance prices. The main trend indicator is still on the red buy signal, although we have minor sell signals on the short term chart which is to be expected in a corrective mode. Support is seen at $7.45 on September futures while another support level which may be tested on a larger pullback would be the $7 mark.
Chicago futures closed the gap at the $5.25 level, and they are now at our $5 support as indicated in last week’s commentary. If this area cannot hold the stress, we will be looking at the next support line of $4.80-$4.90 and another at the $4.60 level on the September futures.
Our red buy signal is still intact on long term charts, and although we are losing most of the gains in July, the indicators are still suggesting we have a major trend change to the upside.
Short term indicators are neutral but the main trend is still up.
Harvest 2017 prices as of the close, July 19 are as follows:
SWW @ $218.72/MT ($5.95/bu), HRW @ $218.72/MT ($5.95/bu),
HRS @ $289.01/MT ($7.87/bu), SRW @ $217.90/MT ($5.93/bu).
