Marty Hibbs is a grain merchandiser with Grain Farmers of Ontario. Hibbs is a 25 year veteran futures trader, analyst, and portfolio manager. He was a regular guest analyst on BNN for four years and is currently authoring the Market Side education series on futures trading basics in the Ontario Grain Farmer magazine.
Grain Market Commentary for May 30, 2018
| Commodity | Period | Price | Weekly Movement |
| Corn CBOT | July | 3.93 | ↓ 15 cents |
| Soybeans CBOT | July | 10.23 | ↓ 15 cents |
| Wheat CBOT | July | 5.22 | ↓ 10 cents |
| Wheat Minn. | July | 6.11 | ↓ 31 cents |
| Wheat Kansas | July | 5.41 | ↓ 11 cents |
| Chicago Oats | July | 2.39 | ↓ 13 cents |
| Canadian $ | June | .7767 | ↓ 0.21 points |
Corn
Last week we called for resistance at the $4.10 – $4.15 level on the July corn futures, and after hitting $4.12, we back tracked to the $3.90 level as indicated to be initial support in last week’s commentary.
We may have seen the high for the next couple of weeks, as we did hit a significant level of resistance. The next support on the July futures sits between $3.65 and $3.75, and if we manage to get that low, we should see another move back up to challenge the $4.12 top in the near future.
Both our short term and intermediate trend are still bullish while the primary trend, or long term trend, is still down. A definitive close above $4.50 will confirm the primary trend moving from neutral to bullish mode.
Current overhead resistance is still seen at the $4.10 – $4.15 level on July, while support is seen at the $3.90 – $4 level.
Soybeans
Soybeans continue more of the same with a confined range between the $10 level and the all-important $10.80 level on the July futures contract, as they have done since the first day of May.
The primary down-trend line is still at the $10.80 level. Short term indicators are neutral but the intermediate trend, as indicated on the weekly chart, is bullish as we await the challenge of the $10.80 level before confirming a trend reversal on our final holdout, the primary trend. Until we have a convincing close above that level, the primary trend remains down.
Wheat
Wheat hit our initial overhead resistance of $5.55 on May 29 before succumbing to gravity. The charts showed a hook reversal pattern in the short term. The $5.55 – $5.75 resistance that we were expecting proved to be too much for the price action as we are possibly now headed back to the $5 support level on July before challenging the $5.55 level again.
This movement is normal in a coiling market, and I expect if we don’t find solid support in the $5 price level on the July futures, we should definitely find it at the $4.80 level and set ourselves up again to challenge the $5.55 price point before the expiry of the July futures contract.
Solid support is seen at the $4.80 – $5 on the July contract and our resistance is the May 29 high at the $5.55 level. Once we clear that hurdle, we are set to challenge our $5.75 target.
Indicators are positive and the main primary trend is bullish.
Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, May 30, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $242.27/MT ($6.59/bu), HRW @ $244.64/MT ($6.66/bu),
HRS @ $241.80/MT ($6.58/bu), SRW @ $241.33MT ($6.57/bu).
