Marty Hibbs is a grain merchandiser with Grain Farmers of Ontario. Hibbs is a 25 year veteran futures trader, analyst, and portfolio manager. He was a regular guest analyst on BNN for four years and is currently authoring the Market Side education series on futures trading basics in the Ontario Grain Farmer magazine.
Grain Market Commentary for October 4, 2017
| Commodity | Period | Price | Weekly Movement |
| Corn CBOT | December | 3.48 | 06 cents |
| Soybeans CBOT | November | 9.58 | 07 cents |
| Wheat CBOT | December | 4.42 | 17 cents |
| Wheat Minn. | December | 6.10 | 40 cents |
| Wheat Kansas | December | 4.36 | 22 cents |
| Chicago Oats | December | 2.46 | 02 cents |
| Canadian $ | December | 0.8015 | 0.15 points |
Corn
Although the $3.45 support level that we identified on the December futures contract has been tested three times in the past three weeks, there is a very good possibility that prices may turn lower as we come into harvest. We are currently trading at $3.47, and there is room to slip lower, according to both the daily and weekly charts. If we close below the $3.45 level on the December contract, we will more than likely challenge the $3.30 initial support. We could possibly even take a shot at the $3 level before the harvest is complete.
Our first resistance level is at the $3.60 on the December contract.
Short term indicators have turned negative, and the primary trend is still down.
Soybeans
We have more of the same in soybeans as far as price action goes. The beans seem to be somewhat range-bound. It will be interesting to see the next full report as harvest goes on. The soybean contract for new crop November futures is currently trading at the $9.60 level, and the short term indicators are still negative. We could easily retest the all-important $9 level once again before the harvest is complete. If that level were to fail, I still maintain that a visit to the $8.50 level on the lead month is still possible. The primary trend is down, and we could still rally towards the $10 price without changing the chart formation.
The short term indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.
Wheat
Wheat continues to find solid support this week. We have inched higher by 20 cents per bushel since our $4.20 bottom, but more importantly we have received a red buy signal on the daily charts. This is encouraging, and it suggests that since we hit our first target of $4.60 last week, we could be ready to challenge the next resistance level of $4.80 on the December contract in the coming weeks.
Support still sits at $4.20 on the December chart, while overhead resistance is viewed at $4.70 – $4.80. The slow, steady movement in prices is a good sign, but we need to keep in mind that the primary trend is down, and these rallies should be viewed as selling opportunities for most farmers.
Short term indicators are now positive but the primary trend is still down.
Harvest 2017 prices as of the close, October 4 are as follows: SWW @ $188.93/MT ($5.14/bu), HRW @ $198.10/MT ($5.39/bu), HRS @ $238.91/MT ($6.50/bu), SRW @ $193.51/MT ($5.27/bu).
