We have pretty much ended the week where we left off last week. Markets are still searching for the ever elusive bottom; and with the holidays fast approaching, and the last trading day for the December contract, I am asking Santa for a market reversal. I wonder if I was a good boy or if maybe we will find a lump of coal in that stocking.
There is nothing much to report except that we are still finding good support at these levels at $3.35. The question is whether we close below the $3.50 mark on the March contract, and see a sharp selloff, or maybe just take out the stops and give us a reversal candle.
Initial support is still seen at the $3.30 level on the December contract, while overhead resistance is seen at $3.60.
Short term indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.
Although today, December 6 ended up with a minor loss, I am quite pleased at the chart formation and the indicators. On the week, we gained 10 cents a bushel on the January contract; but more important is the technical as we have broken the four-year-old down trend line and have two red buy signals. All we need now is an excuse to start moving higher.
A close above $10.25 on the January contract could set us up for some good upside over the next couple of months. Until we get a clear indication, we have to remain neutral.
Short term indicators are neutral with a bullish bias, and the weekly indicators favour a bullish tone into the new year. However, the primary trend is still down.
Wheat once again tested the $4.20 support line on the March contract but the expiring December contract seems to be under pressure. This could cause some heavy selling pressure on that contract and the March may follow suit.
Good support is seen at $4.20 on the March futures chart, and as long as we don’t close below there, we could still escape the selloff if the December expiring contract drops hard in its last days. Overhead resistance is still viewed at $4.50.
Indicators are showing oversold conditions. Short term indicators are still negative and the primary trend is still down.
Cash Grain prices as of the close, December 6, are as follows: SWW @ $178.23/MT ($4.85/bu), HRW @ $187.61/MT ($5.11/bu), HRS @ $238.74/MT ($6.50/bu), SRW @ $182.92/MT ($4.98/bu).