Ontario Grain Market Commentary, August 19, 2020
|Corn CBOT||Sept||3.25||↑ 10 ½ cents|
|Soybeans CBOT||Sept||9.12½||↑ 32 cents|
|Wheat CBOT||Sept||5.12||↑ 20 ¼ cents|
|Wheat Minn.||Sept||5.10||↑ 17 ¾ cents|
|Wheat Kansas||Sept||4.37½||↑ 19 ¾ cents|
|Oats CBOT||Sept||2.67¾||↑ 2 ¾ cents|
|Canadian $||Sept||0.7574||↑ 26 points|
Last week the USDA indicated that their current estimate for U.S. corn yield was nearly 182 bushels per acre. Since that estimate was posted, a derecho storm (a widespread, long-lived straight-line windstorm associated with a fast-moving group of severe thunderstorms) damaged at least 14 million acres of crops. It may take weeks before the full extent of the storm is known. Early estimates of losses are between 100 to 500 million bushels of corn. A loss of this size could certainly lower the national yield by a few bushels per acre. The USDA will re-evaluate Iowa corn acreage for their September report.
China is continuing to buy U.S. corn. China has purchased 5.7 million tonnes of new crop corn, in addition to 2.2 million tonnes of old crop corn. In June of this year, U.S. corn shipments to China have surpassed the total volume of U.S. corn shipped during the entire 2018-2019 marketing year.
Soybean futures have strengthened on continued dryness in the central Corn Belt. Prior to this dry period, adequate moisture meant that the U.S. soybeans had a strong yield potential, as reflected in the previous USDA Supply and Demand report. The derecho storm also affected bean acres, but not to the same effect as corn, at least not at this point in time.
As of August 6, 16.9 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans has been sold to China. Of those sold, 10.3 million tonnes are for the 2020-2021 marketing year. For comparison, in 2017, before the trade war, China had purchased 36.3 million tonnes of soybeans by this point in the calendar year.
UK wheat harvest is down, and according to the National Farmers Union, with the worst harvest since the 1980’s predicted, yields could be down by a third. If this is realized, the UK could be a net importer of grain this year, rather than a net exporter.
Global wheat prices have been trending lower in recent months on the expectation of ample supplies for this current marketing year. Lower European production has been negated by stronger Russian production. New estimates for Russian wheat production is 81 million tonnes, up 5 million from mid-July estimates and up 7.5 million tonnes from last year.
2020 harvest prices for August 19, 2020, at the market close, are as follows:
SWW at $243.53/mt ($6.63/bu), HRW at $250.81/mt ($6.83/bu) + protein,
HRS at $ 235.29/mt ($6.40/bu) + protein, and SRW at $238.68/mt ($6.50/bu).
We offer on farm bids for 2020 wheat and 2021 harvest prices as well, please call 1-800-265-0550 for more information.