Ontario Grain Market Commentary for October 17, 2018

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT December 3.74 11 cents
Soybeans CBOT November 8.86 25 cents
Wheat CBOT December 5.17 05 cents
Wheat Minn. December 5.88 04 cents
Wheat Kansas December 5.21 04 cents
Chicago Oats December 2.95  12 cents
Canadian $ December .7695  0.25 points

Corn

Our red buy signal on the daily chart back on October 1 continues to perform.
We reached our upside target area of $3.80 on October 15 and have since moved back to the $3.75 area. Initial support is now seen at the $3.65 level on December. Indicators are neutral, but the primary trend is still down. We still need a close above the $4.40 level on the lead month contract to get excited about a major trend reversal.

Soybeans

Soybeans are still working towards our upside target of $9 on the November futures. This range of $8 – $9 is still a critical area. A close below the $8 level on November futures would signal more downside, while a break up through the $9.20 level on a close on November, could push us toward the $9.50 level and change the dynamics of our charts to a more bullish scenario.

Our weekly and primary indicators are still negative with a green light on the short-term indicators. Major overhead resistance is now at the $9.20 level, while initial support is seen at the $8 level based on the November futures. The primary trend remains down.

Wheat

Wheat continues in our well-defined range of $5 – $5.30 on the December contract. This is well defined and suggests we will see a break to the upside towards our next target of $5.50 in the coming weeks. Solid support still seen at the $5 level on December Chicago.

Last commentary, we suggested we would see a rise to at least $6 per bushel on the HRS. This week the December HRS contract topped out at $6.02 ½ on October 15.

Good support is still seen at the $5 area on December Chicago futures while overhead resistance is now back at $5.50.

All indicators are positive, and the primary trend is still mildly bullish. Wheat is still the leading grain of the three in the race for a major trend reversal.

Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, October 17, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $230.51/MT ($6.27/bu), HRW @ $237.68/MT ($6.47/bu),
HRS @ $237.92/MT ($6.48/bu), SRW @ $230.51/MT ($6.27/bu).

Marty Hibbs is a grain merchandiser with Grain Farmers of Ontario. Hibbs is a 25 year veteran futures trader, analyst, and portfolio manager. He was a regular guest analyst on BNN for four years and is currently authoring the Market Side education series on futures trading basics in the Ontario Grain Farmer magazine.