Ontario Grain Market Commentary for October 3, 2018

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT December 3.65  02 cents
Soybeans CBOT November 8.61  11 cents
Wheat CBOT December 5.15  02 cents
Wheat Minn. December 5.90 12 cents
Wheat Kansas December 5.19  02 cents
Chicago Oats December 2.75  17 cents
Canadian $ December .7793 0.85 points

Corn

Charts are looking more constructive and there is a chance we may have already seen the bottom in prices.

We received a red buy signal on the daily chart. This is a positive short term signal.

We have moved convincingly above the four-year-old downtrend line, which is located near the $3.50 – $3.70 level on the December futures contract.

Initial support is seen at the $3.40 level on December.  Indicators are neutral, but the primary trend is still down.

Soybeans

Our $8 area on the November contract has been tested once again and is looking solid at this point. A close below the $8 level on November futures would signal more downside, but for now we have re-tested the support levels and we are now looking at good support in that area.  We are now experiencing the ascent in prices that we mentioned in our last commentary. We are now headed back to re-test the $9 overhead resistance level.  We also received a short term red buy signal of the November bean contract this week which is another positive. I feel we need to close above the $9.20 level before I’m convinced that our bearish flag formation is negated.

Our weekly and primary indicators are still negative with a green light on the short term indicators. Major overhead resistance is now at the $9.20 level, while initial support is seen at the $8 level based on the November futures.  The primary trend remains down.

Wheat

Wheat performed well again this week as we held support at the $5 level once again. The charts suggest a move to the $5.50 level in the near term and possible a re-test of the $5.80 – $6 level later this fall.

The charts look quite constructive with a large double bottom near the $5 level on the December futures.  We have red buy signals still on the weekly charts and the daily charts. Our next challenge on the December futures contract is an attempt to reach the $5.50 price level and possibly higher before the December contract expires.

Good support is still seen at the $4.80 – $5 area on December futures while overhead resistance is now back at $5.50.

All indicators are positive, and the primary trend is still mildly bullish.  Wheat is still the leading grain of the three in the race for a major trend reversal.

Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, October 3, 2018 are as follows:
SWW
@ $226.32/MT ($6.16/bu),  HRW @ $233.39/MT ($6.35/bu),
 HRS @ $235.28/MT ($6.40/bu),   SRW @ $226.32/MT ($6.16/bu).

Marty Hibbs is a grain merchandiser with Grain Farmers of Ontario. Hibbs is a 25 year veteran futures trader, analyst, and portfolio manager. He was a regular guest analyst on BNN for four years and is currently authoring the Market Side education series on futures trading basics in the Ontario Grain Farmer magazine.