Ontario Grain Market Commentary for October 31, 2018

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT December 3.63  05 cents
Soybeans CBOT January 8.52  11 cents
Wheat CBOT December 5.00  00 cents
Wheat Minn. December 5.69  09 cents
Wheat Kansas December 4.93  04 cents
Chicago Oats December 2.76  15 cents
Canadian $ December .7604  0.75 points

Corn

Another quiet week in the corn futures as the market was confined again to a 10 cent range.

Initial support is now seen at the $3.60 level on December. Indicators are neutral, but the primary trend is still down. We still need a close above the $4.40 level on the lead month contract to get excited about a major trend reversal.

Soybeans

Soybeans continued their slide again this week. We are now quoting the January contract. We received a daily red sell signal on the daily chart that suggests we will see lower prices as the November contract goes to cash. We should now see another move towards our bottom of the box $8 price support. There is a better chance each time we test this area that we will eventually break that support and if it were to occur, would extend the beans into a $7 price handle for the first time since 2008. This is a predictable trading range going forward until either the $8 or $9 price points are negated on a closing price.

All indicators are negative and the primary trend remains down.

Wheat

Wheat did drop to the $4.90 level on the December contract this week and bounced quickly back to the $5 level. For the time being we are seeing good support on the charts and until we break below the $.80 level on the December futures on a close, I feel we can stay on this nine-month-old minor bull run. Another good sign is the formation of the five point reverse wave that we are now in. To confirm this fifth wave, we need a close above $5.25 on the lead month futures contract. If this is confirmed, I believe that the bottom for wheat is in place for the rest of this year and that we could be looking at the beginning of the next bull market in wheat.

Initial support is still seen in this $4.80 area on December Chicago futures while overhead resistance is now back at $5.25.

Indicators are still positive, and the primary trend is neutral.

Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, October 31, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $224.75/MT ($6.12/bu), HRW @ $232.00/MT ($6.21/bu),
HRS @ $231.51/MT ($6.30/bu), SRW @ $224.75/MT ($6.12/bu).

Marty Hibbs is a grain merchandiser with Grain Farmers of Ontario. Hibbs is a 25 year veteran futures trader, analyst, and portfolio manager. He was a regular guest analyst on BNN for four years and is currently authoring the Market Side education series on futures trading basics in the Ontario Grain Farmer magazine.