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Ontario Grain Marketing Commentary, April 1, 2020

COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT May     3.34¾   ↓ 13 ¾ cents
Soybeans CBOT May     8.62¾     ↓ 18 ¾ cents
Wheat CBOT May     5.50¼   ↓  29 ¾ cents
Wheat Minn. May     5.24½   ↓  13 cents
Wheat Kansas May     4.75   ↓ 26 cents
Oats CBOT May     2.60¼   ↓ 5 ¾ cents
       
Canadian $ Mar     0.7029  ↓ 19 points

Corn

The USDA released their Prospective Planting Report at the end of March. The projection for 2020 corn planting is 97 million acres. The trade was anticipating acreage to be 94.3 million. This planting projection would be an increase of over 7 million acres from last year. The USDA surveyed farmers during the first two weeks of March.

Oil prices have hit 18-year lows and gasoline demand both here and in the U.S. have also fallen. Ethanol demand is likewise falling on both sides of the border. This could result in a large U.S. corn carryout for the 2020/2021 marketing year.

Soybeans

The USDA has pegged 2020 soybean acres at 83.5 million as outlined in their Prospective Planting Report. This was slightly lower than trade estimates of 84.9 million acres. Like corn, the 2020 soybean acreage is much larger than what was planted in 2019. It is hoped that the soybean export market, particularly China, strengthens, or we could see U.S. soybean carryout creeping up to levels that could negatively impact soybean values.

Brazilian soybean production estimates have been revised down due to extended dry weather in the southern regions of Brazil. According to the agricultural consultancy Agroconsult, estimates are down 0.8 million tonnes to 123.5 million tonnes for the 2019/2020 soybean crop.

Wheat

All wheat planted in the U.S. is expected be down 1% from the previous year. The USDA is anticipating 44.655 million acres of wheat for the 2020/2021 marketing year. U.S. soft white wheat production is expected to be 192.305 million bushels (3.5 million tonnes) which is down 9% from last year. U.S. soft Red Wheat is estimated to be 284.806 million bushels (7.75 million tonnes) which is up 19% from 2019.

Ukraine grade traders have agreed to limit wheat exports to 20.2 million tonnes this year in an effort to avoid a rise in domestic bread prices. This is a result of the ongoing Coronavirus pandemic which is causing some countries to consider export / import restrictions on grain trade. The Ukraine has exported approximately 18 million tonnes to date.

2019 cash prices for April 1, 2020, at the market close, are as follows:

SWW at $295.49/mt ($8.04/bu), HRW at $303.33/mt ($8.26 /bu),
HRS at $ 255.89/mt ($6.96/bu), and SRW at $295.49 /mt ($8.04 /bu).

We currently offer 2020 and 2021 harvest prices as well, please call 1-800-265-0550 for more information.

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