Ontario Grain Marketing Commentary, August 28, 2019

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT Dec3.71↑ 01 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 8.65↓ 02 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 4.76 ↑ 09 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.06↓ 08 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 4.01↑ 08 cents
Oats CBOT Dev 2.65↓ 06 cents
Canadian $ Sep 0.7521↓ 0.02 points

Corn

It is almost assured that we will see a re-test of the May lows around $3.50 on the September futures and possibly even the 2019 lows which were close to $3.30 on the weekly charts.  This should be the worst-case situation and it is my belief that if we do approach these lows that it will be the final blow-off that I have been expecting since I began writing my reports six years ago.

As depressing as it may seem, this is the traditional way that the market bottoms. It is known as capitulation or throwing in the towel. It is at this juncture in a long-term trend that the market finally gets rid of the baggage and looks forward to the future. Of course, I could be completely wrong in my analysis but my 30+ years has shown me that it takes a watershed moment to finally change direction. Once this is complete, we should see a bullish market develop that will last for years.

My only hope is that the reason for the turn in sentiment and prices is positive for all our farmer-members. Short term indicators for corn are bearish but the primary trend for corn is now

Soybeans

Soybeans are following the same path as corn and coming into September, we should see more pressure ahead of the September monthly report. Meanwhile, the $9.25 price on the lead month is the key point to get excited about.

Support remains at $8.25 – $8.40 on December futures while another support level is between $7.80 to $8 on the lead month futures.  

All indicators remain negative and the primary trend is still down.

Wheat

As we mentioned in our last commentary, the $4.70 support area on the September futures continues to hold. However, coming into the month of September we could see more pressure on prices as we enter the cash conversion later in the month. We could get several surprises in the amount of downward pressure as we enter September.

Based on the December futures, we could see support at the $4.60 level or a drop back to the recent bottom of $4.20 – $4.40. Either way, I expect to see a quick recovery if we drop significantly after the September report is released. 

Like the other grains, I am of the opinion that the wheat futures will find a bottom this fall. I base this solely on my technical analysis.

The primary trend  is still neutral to bullish.   

Harvest 2019 prices as of the close,August 28, 2019 are as follows:
SWW
@ $247.73/MT ($6.74/bu), HRW @ $257.50/MT ($7.01/bu), 
 HRS @ $223.30/MT ($6.08/bu),  SRW @ $245.29/MT ($6.68/bu).