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Ontario Grain Marketing Commentary for December 12, 2018

CommodityPeriodPriceWeekly Movement
Corn CBOTMarch3.85↑ 00 cents
Soybeans CBOTMarch9.33↑ 07 cents
Wheat CBOTMarch5.26↑ 07 cents
Wheat Minn.March5.83↑ 08 cents
Wheat KansasMarch5.11↑ 15 cents
Chicago OatsMarch2.94↑ 07 cents
Canadian $December.7490↑ 0.15 points


I remain bullish in the short term and I feel we will break to the upside within the next week. There are, of course, obstacles in the way with regard to the distance it can move. I received the red buy signal that we mentioned last week and technically we have a flag formation that suggests a minimum move to $3.90 based on the March futures. This, in my opinion, is the beginning of a move that will see us attack and possibly breach the $4 level by January at the latest. This is a level not seen since early August.

Both short and mid-term indicators are now positive, but the primary trend is still down.


It was another constructive week for soybeans as we have confirmed a bullish flag which suggest more upside in the near term. The flag extends to at least $9.60 – $9.70 and helps to confirm that we have neutralized the mid-term trend from bearish to neutral. The next step in this theory is to neutralize the eight- year-old primary bear trend. This will take a move into the $10 area based on the lead month futures contract to confirm. Short term indicators are still positive, while the primary trend remains down. Resistance remains around the $9.70 -$9.80 level on the March contract. If and when we negate this area on a close, we will be ready for an assault on the big prize, the bullish trend line which I have at the $10.80 level on the March futures.


I received a short term buy signal yesterday on the Chicago March wheat at the close of $5.21. Wheat, like the other grains, is resilient and is looking more bullish in the short term than it has for a while. The December contract will be expiring this week and that could release some downward pressure on the March contract.

Overall the weekly charts still look very constructive and I still feel we will see stronger prices in the spring.

Support is seen at $5 while stiff overhead resistance is at $5.50 on the March futures.

Short term indicators are bullish, and the primary trend is neutral to bullish.

Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, December 12, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $240.83/MT ($6.55/bu), HRW @ $248.19/MT ($6.75/bu),
HRS @ $244.26/MT ($6.65/bu), SRW @ $240.83/MT ($6.55/bu).