Marty Hibbs is a grain merchandiser with Grain Farmers of Ontario. Hibbs is a 25 year veteran futures trader, analyst, and portfolio manager. He was a regular guest analyst on BNN for four years and is currently authoring the Market Side education series on futures trading basics in the Ontario Grain Farmer magazine.
Ontario Grain Marketing Commentary for December 12, 2018
| Commodity | Period | Price | Weekly Movement |
| Corn CBOT | March | 3.85 | ↑ 00 cents |
| Soybeans CBOT | March | 9.33 | ↑ 07 cents |
| Wheat CBOT | March | 5.26 | ↑ 07 cents |
| Wheat Minn. | March | 5.83 | ↑ 08 cents |
| Wheat Kansas | March | 5.11 | ↑ 15 cents |
| Chicago Oats | March | 2.94 | ↑ 07 cents |
| Canadian $ | December | .7490 | ↑ 0.15 points |
Corn
I remain bullish in the short term and I feel we will break to the upside within the next week. There are, of course, obstacles in the way with regard to the distance it can move. I received the red buy signal that we mentioned last week and technically we have a flag formation that suggests a minimum move to $3.90 based on the March futures. This, in my opinion, is the beginning of a move that will see us attack and possibly breach the $4 level by January at the latest. This is a level not seen since early August.
Both short and mid-term indicators are now positive, but the primary trend is still down.
Soybeans
It was another constructive week for soybeans as we have confirmed a bullish flag which suggest more upside in the near term. The flag extends to at least $9.60 – $9.70 and helps to confirm that we have neutralized the mid-term trend from bearish to neutral. The next step in this theory is to neutralize the eight- year-old primary bear trend. This will take a move into the $10 area based on the lead month futures contract to confirm. Short term indicators are still positive, while the primary trend remains down. Resistance remains around the $9.70 -$9.80 level on the March contract. If and when we negate this area on a close, we will be ready for an assault on the big prize, the bullish trend line which I have at the $10.80 level on the March futures.
Wheat
I received a short term buy signal yesterday on the Chicago March wheat at the close of $5.21. Wheat, like the other grains, is resilient and is looking more bullish in the short term than it has for a while. The December contract will be expiring this week and that could release some downward pressure on the March contract.
Overall the weekly charts still look very constructive and I still feel we will see stronger prices in the spring.
Support is seen at $5 while stiff overhead resistance is at $5.50 on the March futures.
Short term indicators are bullish, and the primary trend is neutral to bullish.
Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, December 12, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $240.83/MT ($6.55/bu), HRW @ $248.19/MT ($6.75/bu),
HRS @ $244.26/MT ($6.65/bu), SRW @ $240.83/MT ($6.55/bu).
