Ontario Grain Marketing Commentary for June 12, 20

Corn

Corn traded between the $4 and $4.40 range for the past week and performed as we suggested it would. Going forward, the charts seem to indicate a clear path for price action. Since we are now pushing the upper envelope of the price zone for the July futures, we will need fresh news to capitalize on further upside potential.

If we fail to see more newsworthy events in the coming weeks, the prices could slip below the $4 level and correct further, possibly back towards the $3.80 level. However, I feel that it will not be the case, and we will see a significant move in the coming weeks. This will be identified by a close above $4.40 in which case we will see a solid move towards the $4.80 – $5 range on the lead month futures in the summer months. If and when the $4.40 level is convincingly negated on a close, we are embarking a new bull-run that could last for years.

Initial support is seen at $4 and again at $3.80, and our overhead resistance is now $4.40 on the July futures. The primary trend is now neutral, but a close above the $4.50 level would turn this market bullish.

Soybeans

Soybeans had another quiet week, ending up just eight cents higher than where it started. Soybeans are still the laggard, but as long as we stay above the critical $8 level, there is hope for a move into bullish territory. We did receive a red buy signal from the May 24 weekend, and prices are inching higher.

The all-important $9.40 level on the July futures is lurking just above, and we should see a challenge to that area coming into the summer.

Indicators are still mixed, and support is seen at the $8 level on the July futures with major resistance at the $9.25 – $9.40 level. The primary trend is still down.

Wheat

Wheat ended up the week about 25 cents higher on the July futures. However, we are in a wide range, and this swing has not altered the chart pattern. The July futures gave us a buy signal back on May 16, and it is still intact.

The charts suggest a break above $5.30 would give us at least a 20 cent rally to minor resistance at the $5.50 level and the possibility of a shot at the more significant $6.20 level on the lead month futures and more importantly a full-blown bull run. The wheat has been the price percentage leader for the past year, but there may be a contender for this status if we continue to see more of the recent chart action in the corn market.

I believe most of the price generators going forward will be surprises in political, and even more so weather, related issues. I feel it is only a matter of time before we see a full-blown bull market in the grains.

Indicators are positive with a primary trend neutral to bullish.

The solid support is now at $4.50 on the July futures.

Harvest 2019 prices as of the close,June 12, 2019 are as follows:
SWW @ $262.59/MT ($7.15/bu), HRW @ $274.84/MT ($7.48/bu), 
 HRS @ $256.22/MT ($6.97/bu),  SRW @ $257.69/MT ($7.01/bu).