Marty Hibbs is a grain merchandiser with Grain Farmers of Ontario. Hibbs is a 25 year veteran futures trader, analyst, and portfolio manager. He was a regular guest analyst on BNN for four years and is currently authoring the Market Side education series on futures trading basics in the Ontario Grain Farmer magazine.
Ontario Grain Marketing Commentary for May 22, 2019
| Commodity | Period | Price | Weekly Movement |
| Corn CBOT | July | 3.94 | ↑ 25 cents |
| Soybeans CBOT | July | 8.28 | ↓ 7 cents |
| Wheat CBOT | July | 4.72 | ↑ 25 cents |
| Wheat Minn. | July | 5.43 | ↑ 23 cents |
| Wheat Kansas | July | 4.32 | ↑ 03 cents |
| Oats CBOT | July | 3.10 | ↑ 20 cents |
| Canadian $ | Jun | 0.7452 | ↑ 0.05 points |
Corn
The July futures catapulted on short covering after the expiry of the May futures. We immediately headed toward the overhead resistance mentioned in our last commentary at the $3.80 – $4 level. We hit a high of $3.96 before settling back to the $3.94 on July. We did, however, receive a red buy signal last week, but I feel we will rest before we try the $4 resistance again. The markets have taken on a bullish tone although most of it can be contributed to fund buying to lock in their profits.
Good support is now seen at $3.60, and our overhead resistance is now $4 – $4.20 on the July futures. However, I expect a move back to the $3.60 range in the coming week before we challenge the $4.20 trend line. All indicators are mixed with both short and intermediate trends seeing red buy signals. The primary trend is still down.
Soybeans
Soybeans did not fare as well as the other grains and continue to be pressured. We are still eyeing the $7.80 – $8 levels on July for support. This overhead resistance should prove to be significant, and unless we get convincingly through the $9 level on a close, the chances of us visiting the $8 level once again is compelling.
Support is still at the $7.80 – $8 level on July while the overhead resistance stands at the $8.50 level.
All indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.
Wheat
Wheat behaved well this week and as expected rebounded nicely on short covering after the May contract expired. The explosive move took us to our upside target of $.80 and beyond before settling back to close below the resistance. This indicates to me that we may be in for a pullback and consolidation before we attempt the all-important $5 handle on the July contract. We did receive a red buy signal this week, which is very encouraging going into the month of June and early harvest. We tested the $4.20 level on the July futures once again before confirming its support with an 80 cent rally.
I am expecting a little more weakness in the coming week and a possible test of the $4.50 level on the July futures.
Good support is still seen at the $4.20 level on the July futures, and our overhead challenge is now at the $5 level on the July futures. Indicators are mixed with a primary trend being neutral.
Cash Grain prices as of the close, May 22, 2019 are as follows:
SWW @ $235.75/MT ($6.42/bu), HRW @ $248.09/MT ($6.75/bu),
HRS @ $245.12/MT ($6.67/bu), SRW @ $230.83/MT ($6.28/bu).
