Ontario Grain Marketing Commentary for May 29, 2019

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT July 4.19↑ 25 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 8.72↑ 70 cents
Wheat CBOT July 5.47 ↑ 57 cents
Wheat Minn. July 5.47 ↑ 23 cents
Wheat Kansas July 4.53 ↑ 21 cents
Oats CBOT July 3.15 ↑ 05 cents
Canadian $ Jun 0.74020.05 points

Corn

The July futures saw a run of 65 cents this week before settling 40 cents higher at $4.19 on the July futures. This was on the back of the red buy signal which, as indicated, I received two weeks ago. $4.40 The July futures show major resistance at the $4.40 level and we should settle back to at least $4.05 before we resume the run higher. If the $4 level is breached and we close below there in the next day or two, we could see a more prolonged correction down to the next support at $3.85.  

Support is now seen at $3.75 – $3.85 and our overhead resistance is now $4.40 on the July futures. All indicators are now positive with both short and intermediate trends seeing red buy signals. The primary trend is now neutral. A close above the $4.50 level could turn this market bullish.

Soybeans

Soybeans rallied along with its counterparts this week as it took aim at our major overhead resistance that we have mentioned many times before. This $8.80 – $9.25 level is major resistance and will take a bit of work and some positive news to penetrate before the fall harvest.

For the time being, we should see the $8 – $9 trading range stay intact barring any surprises. We are still eyeing the $7.80 – $8 levels on July for major support. This $9.25 overhead resistance should prove to be significant and will take an unexpected event to clear that level on the futures before harvest.

All indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.

Wheat

Wheat gained 40 cents on the week as it blew through our $5 Resistance level and gapped 20 cents higher on the July futures opening on May 29 before settling back to close below $5 at the $4.88 level on July. This explosive move took us to another upside target of $5.20, which marks the beginning of the major resistance at $5.20 – $5.60. The strong outside day on May 29, suggests a short-term top is in place.

We should see more corrective pressure in the coming days. The first support level is $4.50 – $4.70 on July. The charts suggest the stage is being set for what could be a banner year for wheat prices. Many are having issues with their crops, but as far as price is concerned, we could see a strong year if the current problems continue into June. Our next upside target is $5.40, followed by a much bigger challenge of $6 on the lead futures price. Closing above the $6.10 pivot on the lead month futures, would confirm to me as an analyst that we now have a bull market on our hands. Our red buy signal from May 1 is still very much intact, and the primary trend is still neutral to bullish.

Indicators are positive with a primary trend neutral to bullish. The solid support displayed at the $4.20 trend line on May 13, was another confirmation our long-standing opinion that the August 2016 lows of $3.60 were at the bottom of this 11-year cycle in wheat.

Harvest 2019 prices as of the close,May 29, 2019 are as follows:
SWW
@ $245.79/MT ($6.69/bu), HRW @ $258.21/MT ($7.03/bu), 
 HRS @ $249.27/MT ($6.78/bu),  SRW @ $240.83/MT ($6.55/bu).