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Ontario Grain Marketing Commentary, July 22, 2020

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT Sept     3.27½     ↑   1 ¼ cents
Soybeans CBOT Sept     8.94       ↑   13 ¼ cents
Wheat CBOT Sept     5.35½        ↓   16 ¼ cents
Wheat Minn. Sept     5.14¾    ↓  12 ½ cents
Wheat Kansas Sept     4.48½    ↓  11 cents
Oats CBOT Sept     2.80¾       ↑  4 ½ cents
       
Canadian $ Sept     0.7451 ↑  45 points

Corn

The latest corn condition report estimates that the U.S. corn crop is 69% good-to-excellent. This rating is unchanged from last week. 59% of the corn crop is in the silk growth stage, 5 percentage points ahead of the five-year average.

Weekly ethanol production increased for the twelfth consecutive week, according to the EIA ethanol Production report for July 10. Since late April, U.S. ethanol production has increased by 394,000 barrels per day. Current statistics place production capacity at approximately 88% of normal.  It remains to be seen whether production will continue to increase, or if there will be a decline in gasoline demand and therefore ethanol demand as the U.S. continues to deal with Covid-19 outbreaks.

Soybeans

The USDA has rated 69% of the U.S. soybean crop as good-to-excellent. This is an increase of 1 percentage point from last week. 25% of the crop is setting pods. This data is just ahead of the five-year average.

China continues to buy U.S. soybeans. In the past two weeks China has purchased 1.298 million tonnes. This comes at a time when Brazil’s export pace is slowing down. Brazil has sold over 90% of its soybean crop for this year and has sold nearly 40% of next year’s crop. The Brazilian Real has lost more than 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar in the past 12 months. In international markets this has made Brazilian soybeans highly competitive.

Wheat

Wheat prices had a one-day rally on rumors of China buying soft red winter wheat from the U.S. This pushed Chicago wheat futures through some key resistance levels, finishing strongly higher on the day. However, by the end of the week, futures had given up much of those one-day gains.  The soft red wheat purchase was a rumor, but China did buy 320,000 tonnes of hard wheat from the U.S. in July 2020.

For the 2020-2021 crop year, Australia is expected to produce 27 million tonnes of wheat. The end of a multi-year drought and better growing conditions due to some welcome rains in eastern wheat producing states of Australia have given farmers a decent start to their winter wheat season.

2020 harvest prices for July 22, 2020, at the market close, are as follows:

SWW at $253.72/mt ($6.91/bu), HRW at $263.58/mt ($7.17/bu) + protein,
HRS at $ 231.65/mt ($6.30/bu) + protein, and SRW at $253.72 /mt ($6.91/bu).

We offer on farm bids for 2020 wheat and 2021 harvest prices as well, please call 1-800-265-0550 for more information.

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