Ontario Grain Marketing Commentary for August 22, 2019
|Corn CBOT||Sep||3.62||↑ 03 cents|
|Soybeans CBOT||Sep||8.56||↓ 09 cents|
|Wheat CBOT||Sep||4.67||↓ 07 cents|
|Wheat Minn.||Sep||4.98||↓ 06 cents|
|Wheat Kansas||Sep||3.93||↑ 08 cents|
|Oats CBOT||Sep||2.65||↓ 12 cents|
|Canadian $||Sep||0.7521||↓ 0.10 points|
It was not a good week for corn or any of the grains. I continue to believe that this is the purge I have been expecting. If so, things could get worse before they improve. The charts suggest a test of the $3.50 level on the September futures at the best. If we continue seeing weakness into next week, we could see the September futures come under severe pressure as the first notice day approaches.
The positive spin on this move is that it could well be the end of an eight-year bear market. Only time will tell.
The primary trend for corn is now neutral.
There is not much to add to the soybean story. Soybean prices have been under pressure for as long as I can remember. The capitulation necessary to turn this massive bear around may be coming this fall. But until we see evidence, the trend remains bearish as it has for the past seven years. We will keep a close watch on the chart action if I see a reason to think this will change anytime soon.
Meanwhile the $9.25 price on the lead month is the key point to get excited about. Support remains at $8.40 and $7.80 while overhead resistance is at the $9.40 on September futures.
All indicators remain negative and the primary trend is still down.
We have been flirting with the $4.70 support area on the September futures for the past week and even though we haven’t broken to the downside from that level, I have received a red sell signal for the weekly charts. This is a signal that my next support of $4.20 on the lead month will be challenged in the coming weeks.
Like the other grains, I am of the opinion that the wheat futures will find a bottom this fall. I base this solely on my technical analysis.
I still feel we are in the bottoming action of a multi-year bear market based on the volatility we are experiencing, and I feel the markets will turn bullish for the next several years once this shakeout phase is complete later this year.
Overhead resistance on September remains at the recent highs of $5.50 – $5.60, while major support is pegged at $4 – $4.20 on the lead month futures.
The primary trend that is neutral to bullish.
Harvest 2019 prices as of the close,August
22, 2019 are as follows:
SWW @ $249.00/MT ($6.78/bu), HRW @ $258.79/MT ($7.04/bu),
HRS @ $232.86/MT ($6.34/bu), SRW @ $246.56/MT ($6.71/bu).