Ontario Grain Marketing Commentary for December 5, 2018

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT March 3.85 ↑ 06 cents
Soybeans CBOT January 9.13 ↑ 18 cents
Wheat CBOT March 5.19 ↑ 00 cents
Wheat Minn. March 5.75 ↑ 03 cents
Wheat Kansas March 4.97 ↓ 05 cents
Chicago Oats March 2.88 ↓ 07 cents
Canadian $ December .7475 ↓ 0.42 points

Corn

It was a positive week in corn as we gapped higher in prices and received a red buy signal on the daily chart. This signals the eventual test of the $3.90 level on the March futures contract in the coming weeks. This is the only overhead resistance left to overcome before an attempt at the $4 Level, which is a price not seen since early August.

Both short and mid-term indicators are now positive, but the primary trend is still down.

Soybeans

We mentioned last week that the G20 summit may have some influence on the price break either way. With the initial comments, it seems there is hope for an agreement on tariffs, and the markets reacted positively. It was an exciting week in soybeans as we broke above the box formation which has been in place since June 1 of this year. This move will allow us to move towards the resistance level of $9.60-$9.80 on the lead month futures contract.

Short term indicators are still positive, while the primary trend remains down. Resistance remains around the $9.60 level just above the box.

Wheat

Wheat performed nicely last week along with the other grains. We are groping for a support line once again as the $5. Level on the March contract looks supportive. The December contract will be expiring and that should release some downward pressure on the March contract. A close above the $5.25-$5.35 level on the March futures would rejuvenate the buying and we could start seeing some serious upside coming into the new year and spring season. Overall the weekly charts still look very constructive and I still feel we will see stronger prices in the spring.

Short term indicators are neutral, and the primary trend is neutral to mildly bullish.

Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, December 05, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $237.42/MT ($6.46/bu), HRW @ $244.79/MT ($6.66/bu),
HRS @ $238.40/MT ($6.49/bu), SRW @ $237.42/MT ($6.46/bu).

Marty Hibbs is a grain merchandiser with Grain Farmers of Ontario. Hibbs is a 25 year veteran futures trader, analyst, and portfolio manager. He was a regular guest analyst on BNN for four years and is currently authoring the Market Side education series on futures trading basics in the Ontario Grain Farmer magazine.